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Grain stocks push higher but fail to rattle markets

Corn and soybean prices mixed immediately following USDA’s latest quarterly report.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

September 30, 2024

2 Min Read
Grain bin setup
Getty Images/Elijah-Lovkoff

Grain prices weren’t significantly affected immediately following USDA’s latest quarterly stocks report, out Monday morning and covering stocks through September 1. Corn prices tested moderate gains, while soybean prices retreated slightly lower. Wheat held moderate gains it had already collected prior to today’s report.

Old crop corn stocks climbed 29% higher year-over-year to 1.76 billion bushels. However, that was still below the average trade guess of 1.844 billion bushels.

Of that total, 780 bushels are stored on-farm, and 980 million bushels are stored off-farm. Disappearance between June and August totaled 3.24 billion bushels, versus 2.75 billion over the same period in 2023.

 Old crop soybean stocks were also up 29% year-over-year after reaching 342 million bushels through September 1. As with corn, analysts were expecting to see a larger volume after offering an average trade guess of 351 million bushels.

On-farm soybean stocks jumped 54% higher year-over-year to 111 million bushels. Off-farm stocks shifted 20% higher from the prior year to 231 million bushels. Disappearance between June and August were up 18% from the same period last year, with 628 million bushels.

All-wheat stocks trended 12% higher year-over-year after reaching 1.99 billion bushels. Analysts were not quite expecting to see stocks reach that level after serving up an average trade guess of 1.973 billion bushels.

Related:USDA exports – Unknown buys corn, soybeans, October 1, 2024

On-farm stocks shifted 11% higher from last year, with 664 million bushels. Off-farm stocks also trended 11% higher with 1.32 billion bushels. Disappearance between June and August totaled 682 million bushels, which was a 12% increase from last year.

Small grains sized up

USDA also released its 2024 Small Grains Summary on Monday morning. The report – short and sweet at less than 200 words – offered a look at U.S. all-wheat, oat and barley production. Here are a few highlights:

  • Wheat: USDA has all-wheat production at 1.97 billion bushels in 2024, which is a 9% increase from 2023’s total of 1.80 billion bushels. Average yields improved 2.5 bushels per acre to 51.2 bpa.

  • Oats: production climbed 19% higher from 2023 to 67.8 million bushels. Yields saw a record-high level of 76.5 bushels per acre, which was a 7.9 bpa improvement compared to 2023.

  • Barley: production faded 23% lower from 2023 to 144 million bushels, although average yields improved 4.4 bushels per acre to 76.7 bpa.

About the Author

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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