Missed some market news this week? Here's a look back at grain market news.

Monday, Sept. 25

Futures retreated overnight, giving back some of the gains from Friday’s rally.  Several weeks of hot, dry weather matured crops, which could increase harvest activity and hedge pressure this week.

Several weeks of hot, dry weather are putting the finishing touches on a growing season filled with weather extremes. Despite the adversity, farmers posting Feedback From The Field last week said crops improved though their yield estimates are still much below USDA’s Sept. 12 projections. 

Crops are reaching maturity, but harvest weather is expected to be variable. Crude oil prices have rallied, pushing propane costs higher as farmers start harvest.

Weekly grain export inspections for the week ending Sept. 21 showed improvements from a week ago in corn, soybeans and wheat. That didn’t necessarily make it a bullish report, however.

There’s plenty of incentive to keep a close eye on the Grain Stocks report that comes out Friday. The data in the report represent ending stocks for the 2016 crop marketing year for corn and soybeans – in other words, the amount of grain left over for 2017/18.

For the week ending Sept. 24, USDA indicates the corn crop is still a bit behind. Crop maturity came in at 51%, versus 70% in 2016 and 64% for the five-year average. And harvest progress came in at just 11%, lower than the trade estimate of 14%, 2016’s pace of 14% and the five-year average of 17%. soybean’s harvest progress is more in line with seasonal averages. This year’s crop is 10% harvested, compared with 9% in 2016 and 12% for the five-year average. 

Today's Grain Stocks report delivered good news for corn and soybeans, but more bad news for wheat. The report is known to surprise the market and that continued today. It will be a normal week at USDA next week, with the market likely to focus on the WASDE report due out Oct. 10.

Tuesday, Sept. 26

Crop development is still two steps forward and one step back as September winds down. Corn and soybean ratings both improved slightly, but the pace of harvest lags behind normal levels and seeding of winter wheat is also slow over most of the Plains.

Wednesday, Sept. 27

Grain futures are drifting lower this morning, with a little follow-through selling developing after attempts to firm failed overnight. Rains in the key center-west growing region of Brazil are a bearish factor.

Thursday, Sept. 28

Futures are in retreat this morning, after Thursday’s rally proved to be mostly driven by short covering by big speculators ahead of Friday’s grain stocks reports from USDA.

Markets seemed unfazed by strong export sales for soybeans and better-than-expected for wheat, with grain prices trending downward during Thursday morning trading. Shortly after USDA’s weekly Export Sales report landed, December corn prices were down 1.5 cents, November soybean prices were down 5 cents, and wheat prices were down between 1 and 2.5 cents.

Friday, Sept. 29

Traders don’t expect this morning’s reports from USDA to offer much in the way of surprises, but the history of the releases shows some big price moves after the data comes out. That kept markets quiet overnight. 

Grain futures are mixed to mostly a little weaker this morning, reined in by position squaring ahead of today’s USDA reports due for release at 11 a.m. CDT. While we expect the government only to make minor cuts to corn and soybean inventories, a history of big price moves has traders wary of sticking their necks out too far. 

Three export sales have been reported this week, with sales to China and unknown destinations. Two sales were for soybeans and one for corn.

Corn and soybeans moved higher Friday after USDA lowered Sept. 1 stocks estimates. The agency said the 2016 soybean crop was smaller with summer corn feeding likely better too. The agency’s stocks estimate for wheat was higher than trade guesses, implying lower summer feeding.

Corn prices found some support in favorable data from the latest USDA stocks report released today. The ending stocks number for the 2016 corn crop was smaller than expected, at 2.295 billion bushels. Soybean prices rose Friday after USDA cut the size of the 2016 crop by 11 million bushels to 4.296 billion bushels. November price gains went into double digits but cooled slightly to end the day up 8.75 cents, closing at $9.6825.

If money talks it’s clear what the chattering classes on Wall Street are clucking about. President Trump’s proposal for big tax cuts spurred more talk about the “reflation” trade that would boost growth. Two beneficiaries of that idea appeared to be crude oil and soybeans, long-time favorites of big speculators. Here’s what funds were up to, according to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC.

Market outlooks

Basis Outlook - Weak basis ahead of harvest is nothing new, but growers selling into the export pipeline saw cash prices plummet more than usual this week. Low water closed the La Grange Lock and Dam on the Illinois River, and barge rates were up almost 15 cents a bushel on the week.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - The cost of harvesting, hauling and drying 2017 crops continues to move higher, driving by bullish factors and supply and demand in the petroleum complex.

Wheat Outlook - There’s no reason to believe the wheat market has potential for big gains into 2018. But it’s not time to throw in the towel yet on either old crop in storage or new crop planned for harvest next year.

Soybean Outlook - Growers hoping to make money on 2017 crop soybeans they’re starting to harvest can pin their hopes on three factors that should drive prices in both the short and long run. Any or all could move the market higher or lower into 2018.

Corn Outlook - Whether or not the corn market has mettle into harvest should be easy to tell. Charts provide clear direction for the market’s short-term trend. December corn made a spike low Aug. 31 at $3.4425, a level it held in the wake of USDA’s Sept. 12 crop report. If that level doesn’t hold, futures face another quick test at the $3.4125 expiration settlement for September futures last week. Weakness now isn’t unusual, of course.

Fertilizer Outlook – Have you locked in your fertilizer costs? The nitrogen train may have already left the station and now phosphates and potash are starting to rumble as September trading winds down.

Financial Outlook - The cheap money party isn’t quite over yet, but the Federal Reserve has sounded “last call,” a move that could have significant impacts on agriculture.