The 200-day moving average has been a reliable indicator of bullishness in the soybean market since it began its rally six months ago. Now May futures are beginning to test that support, weighed down by forecasts for a huge South American crop. Financial markets aren’t providing any help, continuing to drift lower on expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

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Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key crop inputs.