Missed some market news this week? Here's a look at market news from Bryce Knorr and Ben Potter this week.

Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018 

Wheat ended August as the leader in the grain market. But last week’s rally came to a screeching halt after Labor Day, when Russian officials said they saw no need to curb exports despite a disappointing crop this year. A strong dollar attracting safe-haven buying also weighed on prices as financial markets remain concerned about emerging markets and U.S. tariffs.

While growers posting Feedback From The Field last week continue to report highly variable corn and soybean yields, overall conditions improved. Soybeans in particular appear to be gaining thanks to August rains.

For the week ending Aug. 30, corn export inspections finished slightly higher than the prior week, closing out its 2017/18 marketing year on a strong note. Soybean and wheat export inspections, meantime, fall moderately from the prior week’s totals. 

The week ending Sept. 2 showcased mixed results, with soybean quality keeping steady while corn quality slipped another point, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report.

Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2018

While one large storm system moves across the Plains and upper Midwest today, the remnants of Gordon are bringing heavy rain to the Delta. Moisture will benefit growers looking to expand hard red winter wheat acreage but could hurt early harvest plains for those in the eastern Corn Belt. Futures are trying to hold overnight, a marked contrast to other markets that are in retreat over concerns about emerging market countries.

Thursday, Sept. 6, 2018

The Trump administration could move to slap China with tariffs on another $200 billion in imports as soon as today. While U.S. farmers already took a direct hit from the first round of sanctions, the potential for the dispute to ratchet up is a reminder that little progress has been made to reopen the largest market for U.S. soybeans.

Friday, Sept. 7

After the first round of tariffs against China hammered grain markets this summer, traders are bracing for more volatility while waiting for President Trump to begin slapping another $200 billion in sanctions in the ongoing trade dispute. Futures headed lower across the board overnight, with wheat showing weakness on price charts. 

Grain futures are lower this morning, posting modest losses across the board as traders appear willing to head to the sidelines in front of a cloud of uncertainty. The Trump administration is mulling $200 billion in additional tariffs against China. And even before USDA release updated crop estimates next week, employment data for August comes out this morning.  

After a round of mediocre results the prior week, corn exports for the week ending Aug. 30 rebounded by more than 50%, with soybean and wheat totals slipping slightly as the 2017/18 marketing year concludes for corn and soybeans and the 2018/19 marketing year for wheat wraps up its third month. 

Friday’s session featured light technical maneuvering, with corn and soybeans ending up fractionally higher, while wheat sank slightly lower as traders begin to shape their positions ahead of next Wednesday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 

Tariff trouble, weather and upcoming USDA reports left markets drifting this week. Funds were cautious overall around the Labor Day holiday, selling more on the week. Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, Sept. 4, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders. 

Outlooks

Basis Outlook- The 2017 marketing year for corn and soybeans ended on a very weak note for basis as bids got ready to officially roll out of September. But buyers weren’t sitting on their hands everywhere, reflecting the boom or bust yields seen around the country this year. 

Fertilizer Outlook- Fertilizer costs start September at their highest levels in a couple years, putting further pressure on margins for growers trying to book fall application supplies. With winter wheat and corn seedings on the rise for 2019 according to Farm Futures survey of planting intentions, U.S. demand could keep prices firm into October when they typically peak.

Wheat Outlook- The best days of the wheat rally may still be ahead. But first the market may need to get beyond seasonal weakness from the fall harvest, with no assurances the fires of summer can be rekindled.

Soybean Outlook- Farming is a gamble, and 2018 looked like a year when soybean growers rolled snake eyes – then doubled down and rolled them again. But a funny thing happened on the way to the poor house: A profit. 

Corn Outlook- Barring a bearish production estimate from USDA Sept. 12, supplies should continue to ratchet lower in the year ahead, after dropping more than 12% over the past 12 months. When all is said and done, carryout could be down another 18% by the end of the 2018 marketing year.