Missed some market news this week? Here’s a look back.
 

Monday, Nov. 13

Global markets appear to have the Monday blues this morning, sending stocks and some commodities lower. Grain futures pulled back overnight across the board, led by selling in wheat as traders continue to digest last week’s USDA report and wonder what’s next.

Markets popped on Friday with short covering on corn and wheat. Markets are giving back their gains today. It will be a slow time for the market for next couple months. The main prospect for rallies is weather concerns.

USDA surprised the market, and likely many farmers, with its record yield forecast for corn Nov. 9. But growers reporting Feedback From The Field in October and November on average supported the agency’s estimates for both corn and soybeans. 

Corn harvest progressed 13 points in the week ending Nov. 12, 2017, bringing the harvest to 83% complete in the latest Crop Progress report issued Monday afternoon. Soybean harvest is 93% complete, which is close to the five-year average of 95%.

Tuesday, Nov. 14

Soybean futures are trying to hold on to minor gains from a choppy overnight session that has January futures battling chart support. A slower than expected gain in harvest last week lent some support, along with forecasts for a drying trend in Argentina.

Corn couldn’t quite meet the trade expectations for weekly export inspections for the week ending Nov. 9. Soybeans turned in a relatively strong performance but came in behind a week ago. And wheat beat last week’s totals, but came in on the low end of trade estimates. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its regular Commitment of Traders report Monday afternoon, delayed for the government’s observance of Veterans Day on Friday. The data gave of glimpse of what money managers were thinking last week, before the Nov. 9 USDA reports that sent futures reeling. 

Wednesday, Nov. 15

Grain futures are mixed this morning, reversing directions from Tuesday’s close. Corn and soybeans are higher on the heels of big breaks yesterday, while wheat gives back some of its gains.

Thursday, Nov. 16

The corn market definitely has a “gone fishing” feel this morning after trading in a range of less than a penny overnight. Outside markets aren’t quite as sublime after volatile moves Wednesday on Wall Street and beyond.

Early morning grain markets shook off sluggish weekly export sales numbers, with corn, soybeans and wheat all trading for small gains in morning trading. Even so, corn and soybean weekly export sales failed to meet trade estimates, with wheat volume coming in a little bit better than anticipated.

Friday, Nov. 17

Grain futures are posting modest gains across the board this morning, as investors appear a little more in favor of commodities on the heels of yesterday’s big rally on Wall Street.

Grain futures are posting light gains this morning as markets across the board try to prove the worst is behind them this fall. Outside markets could provide a little lift with buying noted in commodities including crude oil, gold and copper. Stocks are trying to firm in Europe after early selling as Wall Street tries to hang on to yesterday’s big gains. The dollar is weaker.

Export sales were reported on Monday and Tuesday this week, with the Philippines buying soybean cake and meal and unknown destinations buying corn.

Sometimes the little things can add up to big changes. Friday’s grain markets took a slightly weaker U.S. dollar, some Argentina weather worries, a bit of bargain buying and short covering and added it all together for 2% gains in corn and soybean prices, with wheat prices getting a slightly more modest lift. 

Soybeans were up 18.5 cents today, corn added 6.5 cents and wheat also closed higher. Next week it’s business as usual at USDA, Ben Potter says in his weekly Market Update. 

Fund buying helped lift corn and soybeans on Friday, but big speculators were selling those contracts earlier in the week despite a shift in their thinking towards commodities. Friday’s Commitment of Traders provided new evidence that investors may be taking another look at riskier assets.

Market outlooks

Corn Outlook - By spiking to new contract lows, then holding, December futures supported ideas that a cycle low is in. Corn typically trades in eight to 12 week cycles and last week was 10 weeks off the Aug. 31 spike low. 

Soybean Outlook - USDA’s Nov. 9 reports on soybeans brought little surprise to many in the market. The agency’s forecast of 2017 production went down 6 million bushels, just 3 million less than my guess. Likewise, carryout projected for the end of the marketing year Aug. 31 was 5 million lower than October, not much of a change.

Wheat Outlook - USDA actually had some good news for wheat in its otherwise bearish Nov. 9 reports. The agency cut its forecast of ending stocks by 25 million bushels due to better export potential, something I’ve said was warranted though I didn’t expect the reduction so soon.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - After rallying to their highest level in nearly three years, diesel prices finally began to pull back this week, at least on wholesale markets after staying strong longer than usual due to the drawn-out harvest. But how far fuel falls now depends on myriad factors that won’t be easy to predict as farmers wonder when to lock in prices for diesel they’ll need in the spring.

Basis Outlook - Futures markets for corn, soybeans and wheat aren’t providing much for growers to be thankful for ahead of Thanksgiving. But basis in the cash market is perking up thanks to tight farmer holding and in some cases lower transportation costs and better demand.

Compiled by Janet Kubat Willette