Missed some market news this week? Here’s a look back.

Monday, May 21, 2018

News the U.S. and China declared a “truce” in their trade disputes sent markets higher overnight, with soybeans leading the charge. While no specifics of any settlement emerged after talks last week, U.S. officials said China agreed to buy more agriculture and energy products from the U.S. Grain futures gapped higher as a result, breaking free of May downtrends as traders return their focus to planting delays for corn. 

Timeliness is important for corn growers. It’s especially important this week, when traders and analysts pour USDA’s Crop Progress report with even more intensity than normal. This week’s numbers will be cranked into spreadsheets to see if #plant18 may be having any impact on yields. 

For the week ending May 17, soybeans appeared to be on the comeback trail, rebounding with moderately higher export inspections than the prior week and beating industry forecasts. Corn posted another round of solid results, meantime, with wheat export inspections failing to impress. 

The 2018 planting season started relatively slowly for corn, but the crop has officially caught up to the five-year average, with 81% of the crop in the ground as of May 20. Spring planting progress for soybeans and spring wheat also made big strides this past week. 

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

While growers aren’t out of the woods yet completely getting 2018 crops in the ground, they did make good progress last week according to USDA, meeting or beating average levels for the season. While that triggered a little profit taking at the start of the overnight session, markets are moving higher across the board this morning thanks to easing trade tensions with China and hopes for better demand. 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

A host of dark clouds dampen the global market landscape this morning, with some of that gloom spilling over into grain futures trade. Worries about the future of U.S.-China relations are also emerging after last weekend’s more positive tone to the trade dispute. Nonetheless, Chinese buyers were reported to be interested in U.S. soybean cargoes again as new customs data showed them taking corn and sorghum before the trade flap heated up.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Soybean export sales ended in the red for the week ending May 17, erasing most of the double-digit gains that had been collected in overnight trading when the data was released Thursday morning. Corn and wheat exports last week fared somewhat better, but with mixed results depending on whether totals were measured against the prior week or the four-week average.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Overnight, corn and soybean prices tested the waters with modest (less than 0.5%) gains, while some wheat contracts moved 1% or higher after absorbing some overseas production news. 

Export sales were reported on three days this week, with Saudi Arabia taking corn, unknown and China taking soybeans. The corn and 6.1 million bushels of the soybeans purchased by China were optional origin contracts, which means the commodity may be from the U.S. or one or more other exporting countries. Unknown destinations also canceled 5.2 million bushels of grain sorghum. 

Wheat prices grabbed more weather-related gains – with corn enjoying spillover strength – and a pair of large soybean export sales to China helped boost those prices heading into a three-day weekend. Corn and soybean prices finished about 0.5% to 0.6% higher Friday, with winter wheat prices trending more than 2.5% higher.

Market outlooks

Fertilizer Outlook – With the planting window for corn starting to close, retail fertilizer prices appeared little changed last week. But signs emerged the nitrogen market could be make a bottom, limiting seasonal weakness into summer.

Soybean Outlook - While it’s far too early to declare victory, soybean growers can at least breathe a little easier following the decision by the U.S. and China to step back from the brink of an all-out trade war. Don’t close the doors on your bunker just yet because bad news could emerge in an instant from a news cycle measured in nanoseconds.

Corn Outlook - Despite a bullish May 10 USDA report, the corn market hasn’t made many headlines over the past two weeks. But while wheat and soybeans posted big moves both up and down, corn saw only limited selling pressure, keeping prices ratcheting higher. 

Wheat Outlook - The wheat market is knocking at the door. Whether it opens should be known soon, and may depend on a push from Minneapolis. 

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - Farmers needing to buy fuel on the spot market this week faced more sticker shock: Wholesale diesel prices kept rising, hitting new highs for the year and staying at their most expensive level since 2014.