Missed some market news this week? Here’s a look back.

Monday, June 4, 2018

Selling pressure from last week intensified Sunday night when markets opened with soybeans and corn gapping to two-week lows. Lack of any widespread weather threat kept futures back on their heels, despite a more optimistic mood in outside markets that sent investors scurrying to buy stocks. Trade tensions remain a drag on export hopes as the U.S. squares off against friend and foe alike.

Hit-or-miss rains over the last week left some fields too dry and others too wet in the Corn Belt. Overall ratings from growers providing Feedback From The Field showed only a slight improvement, and average assessments were fair less optimistic that initial ratings put out by USDA.

For the week ending May 31, weekly export inspections for corn remained on the high end of trade estimates and trended higher than the same week a year ago. Soybean and wheat export inspections turned in less impressive, mixed results.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Grain futures are trying to recover from the shellacking they suffered Monday, but bulls are still searching for news to trade. Weather forecasts promise good rains over the next two weeks in the U.S., while farmers made good progress towards finishing spring planting. Trade issues remain a dark cloud over the market ahead of the meeting of G7 leaders at the end of the week. 

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Grain markets moved higher across the board overnight. Follow-through buying helped corn and wheat advance while soybeans benefited from a more optimistic tone to trade talks between the U.S. and China that could spur buying of U.S. agricultural products. Rains moving through the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning are part of a shift wetter that could bring excessive precipitation to Iowa over the next week. 

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Wheat growers haven’t had a lot to cheer about over the past few years, but futures show signs of trying to change that bearish dynamic. A series of weather problems around the world, from the southern U.S. Plains to the Black Sea and Australia could tighten global supplies. Wheat moved higher again overnight despite sluggish trade in corn and soybeans ahead of weekly export data this morning.

After posting a healthy 38.4 million bushels in export sales the prior week, soybean sales tumbled more than 80% for the week ending May 31 – helping to cause prices to slump once more Thursday morning. Corn and wheat export sales held much closer to week-over-week trends, meantime, with both crops besting the latest trade estimates.

Friday, June 8, 2018

Crop prices moved lower overnight on follow-through selling from Thursday’s break, beset by worries over trade and lack of weather threats, at least in the U.S. Rains moving through the Dakotas and Upper Mississippi River Valley this morning could bring relief to dry areas of the Corn Belt, and forecasts for the next two weeks are also wet. An already contentious meeting of G-7 leaders that starts today in Canada won’t get any better after President Trump said he would leave the gathering early. 

Grain futures moved lower again across the board overnight, pressured by follow-through selling from Thursday’s losses and lack of bullish news on either weather or trade. Markets around the world are bracing for friction between the U.S. and its allies at the meeting of G-7 leaders that starts today in Canada.

Lingering trade tensions between the U.S. and China – not to mention continued favorable crop production weather in much of the U.S. – kept soybean futures trending lower again on Friday. Profit-takers stepped in to drop wheat prices lower, too, while corn futures found a small lift on a round of some short-covering.

Funds continued to dump holdings in commodities this week, but selling was not across the board. Big players again focused bearish sentiment on a few key contracts. Here’s what funds were up to through Tuesday, June 5, when the CFTC collected data for its latest Commitment of Traders put out on Friday.

Market outlooks

Basis Outlook— While there’s plenty of uncertainty over trade as summer begins, so far those rumblings aren’t spilling over into the corn market much. Indeed, brisk export demand and a Memorial Day rally gave growers finished with planting a change to move some old crop to town.

Soybean Outlook- Weakness into late May and early June isn’t unusual for soybeans, even in an otherwise bullish year. But 2018 is proving to be a very unusual year indeed as seasonal patterns enter a very dangerous time for the market.

Corn Outlook- July weather is usually the key metric for determining corn yields, and most years, prices. But without gaining some backbone soon, futures’ rallies in a month or so may be short, and maybe not all that sweet.

Wheat Outlook- In May it looked like June rallies in wheat would depend on Minneapolis for a lift. But though help from the northern Plains doesn’t seem likely, winter wheat growers should be penciling out how to profit from markets offering both promise and peril.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook- Politics, global affairs – and maybe animal spirits, too – may be just as important as economics to steering farm fuel prices over the summer, complicating decision making for farmers need to buy diesel and propane.