Every year when I make marketing decisions, it seems like I always have a fear of selling too much too soon. Then, that later turns into wishing I had sold more sooner. I know I’m not alone in feeling that way. How can I stop this from happening each year? – D.S., Ind.

The two major emotions that come up when dealing with the market are fear and regret. One thing that we’ve found to be helpful in working on this with our farmer clients is taking time to look at the impact of the decision that’s being made.

Imagine a farmer who raises 3 million bushels of corn – yet has major anxiety over selling more than 10,000 bushels at a time. In that situation, each marketing decision is so small that it doesn’t have that big of an impact on the farm’s numbers.

Consider creating a basic spreadsheet that allows you to run some “what-if” scenarios around quantity and price. Then, you can get a sense of what that decision will do for your farm’s revenue. Walking through these scenarios before you need to pull the trigger gives you a better sense of the true impact.

Building a basic scenario spreadsheet can help bring more facts into the decision-making process. Without the facts, you’re left with an emotionally-driven sense of wondering “how did I do?” That usually means: How did I do with my early sales compared to where the market got up to at some future date?

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Many farmers will beat themselves up about that, leading to reluctance to make sales later on.

Remember that risk isn’t only about price – it’s also about time. Eventually, farms need to move bushels at harvest and in the winter, so it’s important to remember both types of risk.

Run the numbers and work to understand how market fluctuations can be managed through sales. Bringing in facts about your own operation can also help reduce anxiety around making sales when uncertainty is at play.

--Frye is president and CEO of Water Street Solutions. [email protected]