Farm Progress

Could Argentina be the answer to the soybean over supply?

Market watchers are also keeping an eye on dry conditions developing in parts of the United States.

Kevin Van Trump

July 20, 2018

1 Min Read

Soybean prices are slightly higher this morning and have added about +30 cents from the beginning of the week. Bulls continue to see strong demand for U.S. soybeans.

Similar to corn, there have been several rumors that Argentina is snooping around in the U.S. market for supply. We continue to see the lack of Chinese buying being supplemented by other global purchasers. In other words, no real dramatic setback as of yet to U.S. export demand.

Bulls are also talking about dry conditions starting to weigh on the crop in some areas across the Midwest. Bears on the other hand, continue to point to perhaps longer-term trade conflicts with the Chinese, and no real certainty in regards to NAFTA.

Bears are also continuing to point towards burdensome domestic surplus and the possibility of another record U.S. crop. There's also talk of cooler and wetter weather in the days ahead, which could help stabilize soybean conditions moving forward. Bulls believe we will once again see crop-conditions pull back a bit on Monday as dry conditions continue to complicate in a few key areas.

The obvious question is how the weather plays itself out into August...stay tuned!

From a technical perspective, the longer-term bulls are still wanting to see the NOV18 contract close back above $9.00 per bushel, before they start to consider it a turnaround . Major support on the downside looks to be the low set back on Monday at $8.26^2 per bushel  

Some insiders are thinking we might be trapped in a range sideways to lower until the market learns more about Weather and Washington. I feel like that's probably correct...

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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