While the government first forecast of net farm income for 2017 shows a slowing rate of decline, the bottom line number masks some of the true pain growers could see in the year ahead. While production costs for seed and fertilizer are falling, most of the increase in revenues accrues to just two commodities, milk and cotton. Cotton growers could see revenues up by $12.7 billion, with milk checks up $4.7 billion. Feed and food grains are expected to see revenues fall $1 million or more, with oilseed crops up only slightly.

But beyond profits and losses, the outlook from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows how four years of falling income are impacting balance sheets, asset values and growers’ ability to repay debts as their profit margins slip, burning through equity.