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Be patient with the soybean market

global soybean production
Weather, trade negotiations and South American production are keeping the bulls at bay.

Soybean prices are higher to start the morning. There was some talk overnight that China and the U.S. reached a modest breakthrough in their standoff over trade, saying they will hold lower-level talks later this month on the spiraling dispute. China’s Commerce Ministry said a vice minister will travel to the U.S. at an unspecified date, at the invitation of the Treasury Department, to discuss trade issues. The new round of discussions would be the first since May. 

Traders yesterday were talking about possible production hiccups in some southern areas of the U.S. and the fact Argentina has decided to suspend their export tax reductions on both meal and oil for six months. I suspect with the Argentine peso falling to a new all-time low and their interest rates being bumped to 45%, the government needs the tax income. 

Bulls are desperately trying to battle, but favorable weather in the Midwest and continued uncertainty in Washington aren't allowing for a lot of nearby momentum, many are still seeing the $9 to $9.20 area as tough nearby resistance. The U.S. weather forecast continues to show improved rainfall totals in many important areas along with fairly mild-summer temperatures. Trade negotiations and talk from Washington about new tariffs continue to weigh on the global markets and keep many bulls sidelined.

Demand remains strong, and yesterday's NOPA crush numbers did nothing but further confirm that fact. The monthly crush report, showed the soybean crush at a new record for July at 167.73 million bushels, which was well above most trade estimates. This was also well above last month’s 159.228 million bushels crushed. And massively above last year's July crush at 144.718 million bushels. In fact, not only was this the largest July crush ever, it has become the second largest crush ever for any month or year, behind only March which came in at 171.85 million bushels. Soy oil stocks eased to 1.764 billion pounds from 1.766 billion pounds a month earlier, Soymeal exports in July totaled 737,465 tons, down from 857,275 tons exported in June, NOPA said. 

With a +750 million bushel ending stock number, I still see nearby rallies being somewhat limited, unless we see a significant change in trade rhetoric with the Chinese. Staying patient with a much longer-term mindset. 

TAGS: Soybeans
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