It’s hard to get a rally kickstarted when USDA remains so bullish in its production estimates. Today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was a stark reminder of that reality after the agency is expecting to see record-breaking corn and soybean production this season.

USDA slightly raised its estimates for 2024 corn production to 15.157 billion bushels, which would be the third-largest haul on record, if realized. And soybean production is expected to carve out a new record production of 4.589 billion bushels this year.

Lower-than-expected ending stocks helped corn prices move modestly higher, while soybean and winter wheat prices faded moderately lower following Monday’s report.

Corn

USDA showed a mixed bag of supply and demand data for corn in the August report. Beginning stocks for 2024/25 eased 10 million bushels lower based on higher use forecasts for 2023/24. Even so, USDA predicts corn production will eclipse 15.1 billion bushels this season after offering its first survey-based corn yield forecast, which came in at a record 183.1 bushels per acre. Of particular note, yield potential is higher year-over-year in several key production states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota.

Corn exports during the 2024/25 marketing year increased 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion, which USDA attributes to U.S. competitiveness and “relatively low world market prices.” Ending stocks eased 24 million bushels lower to 2.1 billion, and the season-average farm price eased 10 cents lower to $4.20 per bushel.

South American production was steady to slightly lower. Brazilian production estimates remained unchanged, at 4.803 billion bushels, while Argentinian production spilled lower to 1.968 billion bushels. World ending stocks eased from 311.64 million metric tons in July down to 310.17 MMT.

Soybeans

USDA raised its outlook on 2024 soybean production by 154 million bushels to nearly reach 4.6 billion, due to higher area and yield. The agency’s estimates for harvested area increased 1 million acres from July, to 86.3 million acres. USDA’s yield estimates improved 1.2 bushels per acre from last month, climbing to 53.2 bpa. The agency also lifted its soybean export estimates by 25 million bushels, but ending stocks jumped 125 million bushels higher from July to 560 million.

Prices for the soy complex are steady to lower this month. The season-average farm price for soybeans stumbled 30 cents lower to $10.80 per bushel. Soymeal prices faded 10 dollars lower to $320 per short ton, while soyoil prices remained unchanged at 42 cents per pound.

South American production showed Brazil’s potential holding steady at 5.622 billion bushels, while Argentinian production tracked slightly lower, with a new estimate of 1.800 billion bushels. World ending stocks moved surprisingly higher, to 134.30 million metric tons, easily besting the average trade guess of 127.97 MMT.

Wheat

USDA’s new forecast for wheat included “lower supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports and smaller ending stocks.” Supplies eased 26 million bushels to 1.982 billion. Harvested area was trimmed by 900,000 acres, but all-wheat yields improved 0.4 bushels per acre to 52.2 bpa. Ending stocks were lowered by 28 million bushels to 828 million, which was lower than the average trade guess of 862 million.

USDA elected to hold its season-average farm price estimates steady this month, at $5.70 per bushel.

World ending stocks eased form 257.24 million metric tons in July down to 256.62 MMT. That was very close to the average trade guess of 256.87 MMT.