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It's tough to get overly bullish the corn market with such a good forecast into August.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

July 31, 2019

2 Min Read
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Corn bulls continue to struggle as U.S. weather is abnormally cooperative for late-July into early-August. We are deep into the "Dog Days" of summer and I'm sitting here in Kansas City with 80-degree temps, good soil moisture profiles and a bit of rain forecast almost every day for the next week.

For a bit of trivia, the official “Dog Days” of summer are said to begin on July 3 and end on August 11. This time frame came about as Sirius, the Dog Star, was observed to be the brightest star in the sky. The ancient Greeks noticed that in the summer months, Sirius rose and set with the Sun, and they theorized that it was the bright, glowing Dog Star that was adding extra heat to the Earth during this July to August time period. Bottom-line, weather is abnormally cooperative and crops in many locations have been benefiting. Take a look at the 6-10 day forecast I included below. It's tough to get overly bullish the corn market with such a good forecast.

As a spec, I'm staying long but understanding that more pressure could be applied to the downside. I originally got into this position thinking "time" would ultimately be the play. I still think "time" or lack thereof could still create a strong tailwind. I feel like we are still only one hiccup away from a major problem i.e. one early wide-spread frost, one wide-spread flood at harvest, etc... The crop seems somewhat fragile, roots shallow, and some health issues brewing. I'm not giving up on higher prices! I want to stick around through late-Fall to see how these cards play out.

Again, this is exactly why I elected to sellout of all old-crop bushels. I didn’t want to be forced to sell on bad timing. There's nothing worsen the marketing game then being right the market but wrong the timing. If you've made that mistake, don't beat yourself up too bad, I've done it many times in my life, and I know it’s never any fun. From my perspective, "time" is perhaps more important than "price" when it comes to farm marketing. This is one of the hardest concepts or lessons for many of us to get our hands around. As we've all heard our parents and grandparents say so often, "timing is everything." Hang in there...

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Source: Van Trump Report

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump


Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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