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2014 corn, soybean price prospects

2014 corn, soybean price prospects

The transition to lower prices is occurring differently for corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn prices have come under the most pressure due to large U.S. and/or world crops in 2013. Soybean prices have remained higher due to strong demand, particularly from China.

The large U.S. corn crop in 2013 has resulted in a substantial decline in prices and will result in an increase in consumption during the current marketing year. Still, inventories will be much larger by year-end. High corn prices have resulted in a 45% increase in corn production in the rest of the world since 2005, providing prospects for on-going competition for U.S. corn. In addition, the era of rapid growth in ethanol production has passed. A small decline in U.S. acreage and a trend yield would result in a U.S. crop near 14.5 billion bushels in 2014, allowing a further build-up of inventories next year. Prices are expected to average in the low- to mid-$4 range for the 2013-14 marketing year and in the low $4 range in 2014-15.


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Both South America and the U.S. had large soybean crops in 2013, resulting in some moderation in prices. However, on-going strong soybean demand from China will prevent a sharp build-up in inventories and has kept prices at generally high levels. Another large South American harvest is expected in 2014. A modest increase in acreage and a trend yield in the U.S. would result in a record large U.S. crop in 2014. If production unfolds as expected, inventories will expand during the 2014-15 marketing year, resulting in further price declines. An average farm price near $12.75 is expected for the 2013-14 marketing year and in the $11 to $12 range for the 2014-15 marketing year.

Read more about crop price prospects, as well as livestock prices for 2014 from University of Illinois.


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