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soybeanproduction

Two wildcards remain in markets

Chinese trade negotiations are still the big thing on trader's minds.

Soybean prices are slightly higher again this morning. Traders yesterday were fairly quick to discount the comments of Europe buying big amounts of U.S. soybeans.

Most in the market had already penciled in heavy EU buying of U.S. soybeans on protein production setbacks across the European Union. From what I've been hearing, U.S. soybeans are running about -$1 per bushel cheaper into the EU than soybeans coming out of Brazil. This is all good in theory, but China and U.S. weather still remain the big wild cards.

I think both are still huge unknowns and the ball could bounce in either direction. What if the Chinese trade negotiations turn around and end up being a huge windfall for U.S. soybean producers? I don't see that in the immediate cards, but who knows in today's "nothing is normal" landscape.

I just don't know where we come out on the other side, which is what I've been saying for months. As producers, we have to shoot when the ducks are in the air. I was able to get 60% of our estimated new-crop production priced at really great levels, but with hindsight being 20/20, I wish I would have done more. Interestingly, back in late-May when new-crop prices where pushing north of $10.50 per bushel, I was kicking myself, wishing I hadn't priced as much.

As a spec, I'm thinking we could be range between $8.20 and $9.20 per bushel as the trade waits to learn more about weather and Washington. I'm just trying not to get chopped up in the process... small bites, quick on the trigger finger. There isn't a lot fresh or new in the headlines.

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TAGS: Marketing
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