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Trade and the fundamentals

7.12 van trump
Producers need to know that just because you are doing "everything right" doesn't mean a return.

Soybean prices have rebounded a bit this morning from their recent fresh 10-year low. Technical guru's say the next point of major support would be the low of $7.76 set back in December of 2008. Ongoing trade negotiations are casting a dark cloud over the market and many sources are doubting it will clear anytime soon.

The Chinese have made statements that they can find alternatives to U.S. soybeans and will not be bullied. At the same time President Trump doesn't seem to be blinking and continues to threaten increased action. Fundamental bulls point to the fact aggregate global demand hasn't changed one bit, just the pieces are being shifted around. I would agree, but that doesn't necessarily mean the market needs to rally.

Remember, you can be "right" the fundamentals or technicals until the day is long, but you can still be dead wrong in the market. Bulls were saying the same thing when we were up at $10.60 per bushel, that China and others will ultimately need to buy U.S. soybeans. That might very well be true. But it's also something the market has known for the past few months and during that time prices have fallen by more than -$2.00 per bushel.

My point is, the trade doesn't currently care. Big money players are looking at a less bullish global environment. Meaning they do not want to be long markets that could be negatively impacted by trade disputes, especially when the problems could spill over and cause a slowdown in the overall global economy.

The question we need to be asking is when will we see a game changing story that will attract large fund type buying? I can't answer that questions. I do know for a fact, the big money bulls who were betting on aggregate demand staying the same and pieces of the puzzle just shifting, have been severely beaten up by the recent meltdown. Most are now on the sidelines and licking their wounds, I can't imagine they are itching to jump back in on the same story or premise.


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