Soybean traders watch prices in the JUL18 contract tumble to sub-$8.90, a level the market hasn't seen since March 2016.
From a technical perspective, some are saying the low back in November 2015 could be in play just below $8.45 per bushel. New-crop NOV18 prices are down heavily again this morning and now pressuring the $9.00 level. Trade relations with the Chinese and greater uncertainty about NAFTA are clearly creating continued headwinds and extreme pressure.
On the flip side, bulls are trying to find anything to stop the bleeding, now pointing to overall U.S. crop-conditions deteriorating a bit. The latest USDA data shows weekly crop-conditions dropping slightly from 74% down to 73% now rated "Good-to-Excellent" compared to 67% rated "Good-to-Excellent" last year at this time.
Soybeans reported as "planted" pushed to 97% vs. our 5-year average of 91%. Soybeans reported as "emerged" pushed to 90% which is well ahead of our 5-year average of 81% for this time of year. Bottom-line, the market doesn't seem all that concerned about deteriorating conditions in the U.S. Instead, traders are wanting to focus on what appears to be sexier headlines involving U.S. trade renegotiations.
Exports to China are obviously a huge deal, hence the trade likes to keep them in full-focus. There's some hope that something good will happen between now and the July 6th tariff deadline. I'm not holding my breath, but it's very important to think about when considering how you play your old-crop hedges. As I mentioned above with corn, "option expiration" for old-crop JUL18 contracts will be this Friday June 22, 2018. "First Notice Day" for JUL18 futures is the following Friday June 29, 2018. The JUL18 futures contract actually goes of the board on Friday July 13, 2018. With Chinese trade negotiations still at center stage, these JUL18 expiration dates could be of extreme importance.
States With Conditions Improving:
- North Dakota +3% to 82% G/E
- Iowa up +2% to 80% G/E
- Kentucky up +2% to 86% G/E
- South Dakota up +1% to 61% G/E
- Indiana up +1% to 74% G/E
State With Conditions Unchanged:
- Kansas at 56% G/E
- Arkansas at 67% G/E
States With Conditions Deteriorating:
- Illinois down -6% to 77% G/E
- Missouri down -4% to just 44% rated G/E
- Texas down -6% to just 38% G/E
- Nebraska down -5% to just 82% G/E
- Ohio down -4% to just 81% G/E
- North Carolina down -4% to just 56% G/E
- Michigan down -3% to just 68% G/E
- Minnesota down -3% to just 83% G/E