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Record soybean crop?

Blogger Kevin Van Trump says it could get ugly if producers have a record crop and China trade talks don't improve.

Soybean bears continue to talk about the U.S. crop getting larger and not smaller. At the same time this is invoking talk that an already massive 785 bushel ending stock estimate is going to get larger, perhaps pushing to between 850 to 950 million bushels.

Obviously, the thoughts of a record U.S. crop, yield pushing north of 52 bushels per acre, along with no real signs of amicable trade negotiations with the Chinese, is muting most all rallies. As I've mentioned the past couple of weeks, there's also starting to be a bit more debate about total Chinese demand and total U.S. demand.

The headlines just aren't here for the bulls. There's some technical arguments that the market is getting itself a bit oversold, and after essentially being down for six trading days in a row, it might be due for a little reprieve. I also continue to hear talk of basis bids eroding across the U.S. I'm hearing valid arguments on both sides of the fence. One group saying the basis bids are going to start to stabilize then find some strength in a few weeks.

The other side saying the basis could continue to widen beyond most all historical levels. This is really getting worrisome in several parts of the country. I'm glad we locked in a majority of our production estimates way early when the basis was strong. Some good sources were telling me it could get ugly if the U.S. harvested a good crop and the trade negotiations with the Chinese went south. There was certainly nothing genius like about the comments, just glad I listened!

As for flat price, just remember, somebody is obviously excited about still selling this market even as we trade near decade lows. I was always told, the worst sound a bull can hear is the sound of the bears reloading. Be careful thinking they are out of bullets on the next small rally, I'm still thinking they could be reloading...



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