The French presidential runoff scheduled for May 7 continues to be one of the main events for the world financial and commodity markets. A win by popular vote leader Marie Le Pen or newcomer Emmanuel Macron could have different impacts on the future of the European Union, the U.S. dollar and commodity prices.
Global market participants enter the week assuming a likely Macron victory, which would imply that global markets resume last week’s bullish global equity dynamics and lackluster commodity trading activity. Given most bearish global commodity fundamentals it is absolutely imperative for global equity prices to reach a level sufficiently strong to generate lift in commodity prices for one of several reasons.
Market “Near Term” Snap Shot
- U.S. Bonds: Slightly Bearish – Rising Yield
- Domestic Equities: Mostly Near Term Bullish
- Global Equities: Some Consolidating Gains, While Others Near Term Bullish
- U.S. Dollar: Sideways - More Weakness Than Strength
- Commodity Index: Searching for a Bottom, Caution Advised
- Oil: Dangerously Weak
- Soybeans, Corn and Wheat: Basing Continues - Bullish Bias
- Rice: Neutral
- Cotton: 84-cent Price Objective Remains
See the accompanying charts for a full analysis of current markets.