Farm Progress

A truckers strike and crop quality in South America is on the Bull's radar.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

May 22, 2018

1 Min Read

Soybean bulls have enjoyed a nice rebound in price. Talk of the U.S. and China being more on the same page regarding trade has helped ease some nearby uncertainties. Bulls are also pointing towards a recent widespread trucker strike in Brazil; Quality problems with the Argentine crop, which their estimate still needs to be lowered by the USDA.

There is also further confirmation of strong U.S. demand, with the NOPA crush report showing April at a strong level just over 161 million bushels, up about 16% from last year. Bears continue to point to a record crop in Brazil being harvested and producers here in the U.S. possibly planting more soybean acres. Bears are also pointing to a U.S crop that's off to a good start.

Planting has already reached +56% complete vs. 35% last year and a 5-year average of 44% by this date. States running the furthest behind schedule include: SD -20% behind schedule; MI -10%; MN-8%; ND -7%; WI-2%. States running the furthest ahead of schedule include: IL +39% ahead of schedule; IN +35%; MO +30%; KS +26%; AR +24%; TN +19%; NE +17%; OH, MS, LA & KY +13%; IA & NC +7%.

I should note, the USDA also reported that 26% of the U.S crop is considered "emerged" vs. the 5-year average of just 15%. 

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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