French presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, president of the French National Front political party, did not receive the most votes in France’s Presidential Election, but she received the second most votes.

The point is no one doubts she led the French Revolt against the “Old Guard French Political Elite Republican and Socialist Parties whose candidates came in third and fifth.”

In a field of 11-presidential candidates, the top five candidates were Emmanuel Macron (On the Move!) receiving 23.9 percent of the votes; Marine Le Pen (National Front) receiving 21.4 percent of the votes; Francois Fillon (The Republicans) 19.9 percent; Jean-Luc Melenchon (France Unbowed)19.6 percent; and Benoit Hamon (Socialist Party) received 6.4 percent of the votes.

Macron and Le Pen will be in a French presidential run-off election on May 7, 2017.        

Le Pen, the National Front candidate is more of a capitalist, who believes in French nationalism and sees the European Union as more of a liability than an asset to France’s future.

Macron is a different version of the establishment, very pro-European Union and Euro and with a centrists’ view being conservative on some issues and liberal on other issues.  

Seems at least in this election political elite and market participants expectations panned out. They did not expect Le Pen to receive a first place vote, but they did expect her to be in the runoff.

Given that Le Pen came in second in a field of 11-candidates the initial market response is one of total relief. Why?

A stronger showing by Le Pen would have suggested an increasing probability of her winning the May 7^th runoff election, which would have suggested the strong likelihood of France following the United Kingdom and leaving the European Union. A French exit of the European Union would suggest the European Union as it currently exists would not be sustainable. Obviously once the market recognizes the European Union is no longer sustainable then the dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro, likely limiting U.S. exports in the global marketplace.

Can Le Pen defeat Macron on May 7^th?

Over the next two weeks the answer to that question will receive a great deal of attention. It appears that most if not all French political parties will come out in support of Macron and against Le Pen, so the question becomes how will French citizens vote? France is so heavy “socialist” that a Le Pen win appears unlikely, given her inability to attract more votes in the first round of voting April 23^rd.

Now we wait for the May 7, 2017 French Presidential Election runoff.

What to expect from the markets this week?

Market “Near Term” Snap Shot (To see the charts accompanying this analysis, click on http://www.deltafarmpress.com/marketing/market-price-considerations-week-beginning-april-23-2017.)

Conclusion

A May 7, 2017 vote for Macron is a vote for the European Union, the Euro, advanced socialism and financial repression and an accelerated move toward debt paralysis.

A May 7, 2017 vote for Le Pen is a vote for nationalism, likely exit from the European Union and Euro, closer U.S. and United Kingdom ties, a greater global leadership role, etc. What is the downside of a Le Pen win? Unwind of heavy socialism would come with major social withdrawal consequences with the only consolation being it is better to start sobering up now because in-the-not-to-distant future socialism dies with some level of debt default.

Near Term Market Summary Considerations Week Beginning April 24, 2017

Link to slide show:

http://www.deltafarmpress.com/marketing/market-price-considerations-week-beginning-april-23-2017.

DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES