Soybean traders continue to see more stiff technical resistance on the charts up between $9.80 and $10.00 per bushel.
Bulls are pointing to strong Chinese demand, for meal and early weather complications in portions of South America. The bears continue to talk of between 250k and 1 million more U.S. planted acres being added to the current estimate once the USDA digests all of the updated FSA numbers. There's also more field reports circulating that show a mix of results, but none being wildly surprised to the downside.
The U.S. weather during August and September might have been dry for many important areas, but the mild temps might have protected the crop more than some have suspected? I have no idea of where the USDA's final yield will end up, but I'm thinking it stays north of 48 bushels per acre.
Obviously, time will tell, but it's just tough for me to get that number much lower without really stretching the downside. Trust me, I would love to see a 47 bushel yield and a chance to market soybeans at better prices, but I'm having a tough time with that coming to fruition. Lets hope I'm wrong. I'm also worried that any cut in the current yield estimate might just be offset by the adjustment higher in planted acres.
I'm gong to stay patient for the moment on hopes that South American weather headlines and continued Chinese buying give me more opportunity in the weeks ahead, but balance sheet fundamentals here at home are making me extremely nervous abut the downside.
Those who feel they are undersold might want to look at some type of "min-max" or hedge strategy to protect downside exposure if South American weather begins to be more cooperative... Keep in mind, NOV18 soybean prices are again approaching $10.00 per bushel.