Wheat tracks higher on lower-than-expected Canadian acres
Much drier weather is in the forecasts this coming week, which is good for corn and soybean production but not so good for price trends. Both commodities lost around 1% Wednesday. But wheat climbed 1% or more higher in the session, partly on news that Canadian farmers will not be planting as many acres this year.
There’s not a lot of rainy weather in store for the rest of the week across the central U.S., although parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin could see another 1” or more through Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Weather is trending hotter as the week progresses, too, with above-normal daytime highs likely for much of the Midwest and Plains by this weekend.
Hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal lifted spirits on Wall St. Wednesday, with the Dow up 54 points in afternoon trading to 26,602. Energy futures found headwinds today on lower U.S. stockpiles, with crude oil up more than 2.5% this afternoon to clear $59 per barrel. Gasoline and diesel also found big gains this afternoon. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices eroded around 1% today on drier short-term forecasts, as July futures fell 4.25 cents to $4.4325 and September futures dropped 3.5 cents to $4.4950.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm Wednesday, moving 1 to 6 cents higher across multiple Midwestern locations today.
Ahead of the next round of USDA export data, out tomorrow morning, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales totaling between 9.8 million and 29.5 million bushels for the week ending June 20.
U.S. ethanol production last week reached a daily average of 1.072 million barrels, which was slightly below the prior week’s tally of 1.081 million barrels but remains seasonally high for now. August futures slumped about 1.25% lower on the news.
South Africa’s 2019 corn production is expected to drop 12.6% from last year, landing at around 430 million bushels after dry weather delayed some plantings this year.
Taiwan purchased a relatively small amount of U.S. corn and soybeans (590,000 bushels and 551,000 bushels, respectively) in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in August and September.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 347,989 contracts, falling moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 488,692.
Soybean prices followed corn lower on drier forecasts this coming week. July futures lost 9.25 cents to $8.9425, with August futures down 9 cents to $8.9975.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm Wednesday, picking up 2 to 5 cents at several interior river terminals and moving 5 cents higher at an Ohio elevator today.
Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 5.3 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/19 marketing year, which ends August 31.
Ahead of the next round of USDA export data, out tomorrow morning, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales totaling between 11.0 million and 29.4 million bushels for the week ending June 20. Analyst also expect USDA to report another 75,000 to 350,000 metric tons of soymeal sales last week, plus another 5,000 to 25,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Canadian farmers are expected to plant 21.0 million acres of canola this year, according to Statistics Canada. That total is 8.2% below last year’s tally – in large part, due to large global stocks and limited access to China. Canadian soybean acres are also down 9.6% from a year ago, landing at 5.7 million acres.
Farmers reporting to Feedback From The Field say they’re opting for prevent plant on soybeans rather than face lower yields and higher costs from continuing. But some are still trying, particularly those who planned to double crop, anyway. Click here to read the latest farmer anecdotes and view our interactive map.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 202,707 contracts, dropping 43% below Tuesday’s final count of 358,332.
Wheat prices trended higher today on some technical buying prompted by news that Canadian farmers will plant fewer acres this year. July Chicago SRW futures gained 8 cents to $5.4375, July Kansas City HRW futures added 4.75 cents to $4.70, and July MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 3.5 cents to $5.52.
Statistics Canada is reporting that the country’s wheat farmers are planting 24.6 million acres of wheat this year, which is down 0.6% from 2018. Most of the losses come from a 20.9% reduction in durum wheat, due to lower demand.
Ahead of the next round of USDA export data, out tomorrow morning, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales totaling between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels for the week ending June 20.
Improved weather in Russia could raise the country’s 2019 wheat crop production by 13% to 3.002 billion bushels, according to the Agritel consultancy, which conducted a field tour earlier this month.
The Philippines issued an international tender to buy 7.3 million bushels of feed wheat that closes a week from today. The grain is for shipment between late July and early September.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 152,172 CBOT contracts, tracking 14% above Tuesday’s final count of 133,151.