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Afternoon Market Recap for June 17, 2019

Soybeans lead the way with more gains

Corn catches some spillover strength, with wheat mixed Monday

Soybean prices rose double digits Monday on worries over the late-planted U.S. crop, with corn prices catching some spillover strength in the process. Wheat prices finished mixed on some technical maneuvering, however, after enduring a choppy session.

Most of the Midwest and Plains should receive another 1” to 2” or more rainfall this week, per the latest five-day cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Daytime highs are likely to remain slightly below normal across the central U.S. at least for the rest of this week into the weekend.

Is an interest rate cut on the horizon? Investors are optimistic ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which helped the Dow pick up another 48 points in afternoon trading to reach 26,138. Rising domestic output pushed crude oil down 1% this afternoon to fall just below $52 per barrel. Gasoline and diesel futures also saw significant cuts today. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.

Corn prices attracted some technical buying Monday, thanks in large part to spillover strength from surging soybean prices. July futures added 1.75 cents to $4.5475, with September futures up 3.25 cents to $4.6150.

Corn basis bids were steady to mixed Monday, trending 2 to 3 cents higher at two interior river terminals but falling as much as 5 cents at an Illinois ethanol plant today.

Ahead of Monday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, analysts expect the agency to show corn progress reaching 92% complete as of June 16. Analysts expect no changes to USDA’s assessment of this year’s corn crop quality from a week ago, with 59% in good-to-excellent condition.

Corn export inspections reached 25.7 million bushels for the week ending June 13, which was moderately below the prior week’s tally of 33.5 million bushels and on the low end of trade estimates that ranged between 23 million and 35 million bushels. Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 9.3 million bushels.

The European Union Crop Monitor slightly raised its per-acre assessment of 2019 EU corn yields from 117.8 bushels per acre a month ago up to 119.7 bpa.

Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 1.2 million bushels of corn from the U.S., which closes June 26. The grain would be shipped in late August or September.

What are you doing with your unplanted acres this year after crop insurance deadlines passed? Farm Futures continues to gather farmer anecdotes and populate our interactive map in our Feedback from the Field feature – click here to learn more.

On the Mississippi River, meantime, hundreds of barges are waiting for closed sections to reopen. Just when that happens remains a day-to-day proposition for now. Find out how all of this has been affecting basis levels in the latest Basis Outlook column from Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 563,890 contracts, shrinking 32% below Friday’s final count of 835,017.

Soybean prices found major tailwinds to start the week as planting concerns mount ahead of USDA’s next weekly crop progress report, with gains totaling around 1.5% Monday as analysts think more than a fifth of this year’s U.S. crop still isn’t in the ground. July futures gained 16 cents to $9.1275, with August futures up 16.25 cents to $9.1925.

Soybean basis bids were steady to firm Monday, rising 1 to 5 cents across multiple Midwestern locations today.

Ahead of this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, analysts expect the agency to show soybean planting progress at 79% complete. That’s a big jump from the prior week’s tally of 60% but still a long way behind the five-year average of 93%.

Soybean export inspections were for 24.8 million bushels last week, slipping below the prior week’s total of 27.0 million bushels and landing in the middle of trade guesses that ranged between 18 million and 36 million bushels. China was the top destination, accounting for 10.1 million bushels.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) announced a U.S. May soybean crush of 154.796 million bushels, which fell from April’s total and also came in lower year-over-year. NOPA’s May crush was also moderately below analyst expectations of 162.474 million bushels.

China sold 7.9 million bushels of its state reserves of soybeans at auction earlier today, which was 71.9% of the total available for sale.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 271,434 contracts, down from last Friday’s final count of 298,985.

Wheat prices engaged in some technical maneuvering Monday, with narrowly mixed results. July Chicago SRW futures added a penny to reach $5.3950, while July Kansas City HRW futures dropped 1.75 cents to $4.7450 and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $5.6025.

Ahead of this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, analysts expect the U.S. winter wheat crop to have made a little harvest progress, moving from 4% the week prior to 10% as of June 16. Quality-wise, analysts expect USDA to slightly downgrade the crop from 64% in good-to-excellent condition a week ago down to 63%. Spring wheat crop condition is expected to remain stable, with 81% in good-to-excellent condition.

Wheat export inspections are now in their first full week of the 2019/20 marketing year, tallying 13.8 million bushels. That was on the low end of trade estimates that ranged between 11 million and 22 million bushels, and moderately below the prior week’s tally of 17.5 million bushels. Indonesia was the No. 1 destination, with 3.1 million bushels.

The European Union Crop Monitor slightly raised its per-acre yield estimates for the 2018/19 EU soft wheat crop from 89.96 bushels per acre a month ago up to 90.7 bpa.

Estimated Russian wheat exports in June are expected to reach the lowest monthly total of the country’s 2018/19 marketing year, at just 29.4 million bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.

Syria issued an international tender to purchase 7.3 million bushels of Russian milling wheat, with a deadline of July 8. The grain would be delivered between July and September.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 153,487 CBOT contracts, falling moderately below Friday’s final count of 193,327.

grainstable

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