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Afternoon Market Recap for June 14, 2019

Corn’s winning streak continues

Soybeans and winter wheat also move higher in Friday’s session

Corn wrapped up its best single week since the summer of 2015 and climbed to five-year highs after posting another round of significant gains Friday. Prices moved around 2.5% higher today, as worries over late-planted crops continue. Soybean prices moved around 1% higher, with winter wheat prices also finding moderate gains today. Spring wheat bucked the overall trend, falling 0.5% today.

Expect more wet weather this coming week, with a long stretch from Oklahoma up to Pennsylvania expecting another 3” or more rainfall through June 21, per the latest seven-day cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Daytime highs across the central U.S. will come in below normal throughout the coming week, too.

Tepid industrial data from China put Wall St. on its heels Friday, with the Dow slipping 37 points in afternoon trading to 26,069. And energy futures continued to firm this afternoon, with crude oil, gasoline and diesel all taking moderate gains. The U.S. Dollar also firmed moderately.

Commodity funds were big net buyers of corn (+136,000), soybeans (+42,000), CBOT wheat (+36,000) contracts this week.

Corn prices surged another 2.5% Friday, closing out its best week in four years and climbing to five-year highs. Worries over late plantings and plenty more wet weather ahead continue to create significant tailwinds. July futures gained 11 cents to $4.53, with September futures up 10.5 cents to $4.5825.

Corn basis bids continued to come in steady to firm across the central U.S. Friday, rising 1 to 8 cents across interior river terminals and up 5 cents at an Indiana ethanol plant today.

Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 4.9 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/20 marketing year, which begins September 1.

Turkey has purchased 3.9 million bushels of corn in a series of provisional international tenders that closed earlier today, from optional origins.

Ukraine’s total grain exports could increase 24% year-over-year, thanks to a record grain harvest last fall. The country’s corn exports have reached 1.126 billion bushels as of June 14.

French consultancy FranceAgriMer estimates 80% of the country’s corn crop is in good-to-excellent condition as of June 10, unchanged from a week ago.

Due to lower production this year, India will allow two state-run trading companies to import 3.9 million bushels of corn with a 15% import tax, versus the usual 60%. Any grain purchased is required to be non-GMO.

Two Midwestern senators have introduced a bill that attempts to reform the EPA’s biofuel waiver program that requires the agency to show lawmakers the methodology used to grant such waivers. The current process is largely confidential and often criticized for being too opaque.

Summertime is typically a good time to lock in fertilizer purchases for next year’s crop. But how is this year’s chaotic weather impacting seasonal trends? Find out in the latest Fertilizer Outlook from Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

Preliminary volume estimates were for a robust 769,057 contracts but still fell moderately below Thursday’s final count of 946,939.

Soybean prices rose another 1% Friday on weather concerns that were further supported by spillover strength from corn. July futures gained 8.75 cents to $8.9675, with August futures up 8.5 cents to $9.03.

Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. Friday, rising 3 to 5 cents higher across multiple Midwestern locations today. An Iowa processor bucked the trend after dropping 5 cents, however.

Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 4.8 million bushels of soybeans to China and 4.8 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2018/19 marketing year, which began September 1. Private exporters also announced a cancellation for 5.0 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China this marketing year.

U.S. soybean crush last month could be the second-largest May total on record, according to a survey of analysts ahead of the next National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. May’s crush could reach an estimated 162.474 million bushels, up from April’s tally of 159.990 million bushels. NOPA releases its monthly report Monday morning.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 261,081 contracts, coming in ahead of Thursday’s final count of 250,408.

Wheat prices were mixed Friday, with winter wheat contracts moving as much as 1.8% higher today, helped along by technical buying and spillover strength from corn. Spring wheat contracts slipped 0.5% lower, meantime. July Chicago SRW futures gained 3 cents to $5.3850, July Kansas City HRW futures added 8.75 cents to $4.77, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 3 cents to $5.64.

French consultancy FranceAgriMer estimates 80% of the country’s soft wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition as of June 10, unchanged from a week ago.

Taiwan issued an international tender to buy 3.1 million bushels of milling wheat from the U.S., with a deadline of June 21. The grain is for shipment in August and September.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 175,245 CBOT contracts, moving above Thursday’s final count of 166,650.


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