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African Swine Fever concerns growing

Could a near-perfect storm is brewing in the soybean markets?

Soybean prices remain underwater and have not been able to get their head back above $8.50 in almost three-weeks. Not only is the flat price strangling us, but so is the widening basis, as commercials try to choke off the inflow of supply. Capacity restraints, record planted acres, trade tariffs, African Swine Flu, and now a record-setting U.S. yield, have all collided to create a near-perfect storm. Bears continue to point to the obvious, which is more than a doubling of the U.S. carryout from 400 million to now over +800 million, while at the same time adding +300 million in U.S. production on the recent jumps in the USDA yield forecast the past couple of months.

Let's not forget, Brazil just harvested a record crop, with its yield record-setting as well and up almost +15% compared to their 10-year average.

As for African Swine Fever, there's some global officials who are concerned about a possible pandemic as it has now spread into Belgium and parts of Western Europe. Reports say, although it has not been officially reported to the OIE as of yet, preliminary information indicates that ASF has been confirmed in some wild boars near the southern village of Étalle, which is in the province of Luxembourg, located about 8 miles from the border with France. We had already heard of it being reported and spreading in parts of Eastern Europe, primarily in parts of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, but this is a big jump from those areas in Eastern Europe into areas in western Europe. Meaning somehow in between the hundreds of miles that separate the new location of the disease could be more infected pigs. We also know the disease is active in parts of Africa and Russia, on top of the major headlines coming out of China.

Bottom-line, I want to eventually be buyer of this market, but I just can't pull the trigger as of yet, still feeling more downside pressure to come. 

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Corn+Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.


TAGS: Marketing
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