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Weekly Grain Movement – Wheat stumbles after more low totals

Soybean inspections slip week-over-week, with corn moving moderately higher.

Weekly grain export inspections for the week ending February 14 didn’t hold much bullish data – especially for wheat, which fell moderately below the prior week’s tally and below the average trade guess, according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

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“The wheat market accelerated losses today after export inspections for last week came in even less than modest expectations at less than half the rated needed every week through May to reach USDA’s forecast for the 2018 crop,” he says.

Corn and soybeans, in contrast, were mostly in line with trade guesses but failed to generate enough excitement to overcome headwinds of caution as grain markets wait for news about the renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China, Knorr adds.

Wheat export inspections reached just 13.1 million bushels last week, down moderately from the prior week’s tally of 20.7 million bushels and below the average trade guess, which ranged between 15 million and 23 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts continues to move higher, now at 26.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2018/19 marketing year reached 579 million bushels, trending 10% lower than a year ago.

Mexico was last week’s top destination for U.S. wheat export inspections, with 2.8 million bushels. Other leading destinations included Japan (2.3 million), South Korea (2.1 million), Kenya (1.4 million) and Bangladesh (1.2 million).

Soybean export inspections fared somewhat better last week, with 37.9 million bushels, but they slipped below the prior week’s total of 39.2 million bushels and were on the low end of average trade estimates that ranged between 33 million and 46 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts inched higher, to 34.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for 2018/19 reached 870 million bushels, which is still 36% below last year’s pace.

China returned as the No. 1 destination for U.S. soybean export inspections last week, with 14.9 million bushels. Other top destinations included Mexico (4.6 million), Japan (3.6 million), Indonesia (3.0 million), Taiwan (2.5 million), Egypt (2.4 million) and Spain (2.4 million).

Corn export inspections reached 37.1 million bushels last week, moving moderately ahead of the prior week’s total of 29.6 million bushels and on the high end of average trade estimates that ranged between 31 million and 41 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts moved higher, now at 51.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for 2018/19 reached 952 million bushels, trending 45% higher year-over-year.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn export inspections last week, with 12.4 million bushels. Other top destinations included Japan (10.4 million), Peru (6.0 million), South Korea (5.2 million), Costa Rica (1.2 million) and Panama (1.1 million).

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TAGS: USDA Exports
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