Missed some market news this week? Check out what Bryce Knorr and Ben Potter have been following this week.

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Futures are mostly higher this morning, trying to regroup after bearish USDA reports for corn on Friday pummeled prices. In addition to some short covering and bargain hunting, the mood appears brighter on news from China.

Cold, wet soils are keeping most Midwest farmers out of the field, with more storms forecast to sweep across the country over the next two weeks. USDA’s first Crop Progress report for the season showed winter wheat in good shape, with limited work elsewhere. Other markets remain focused on trade and Brexit, with a strong dollar hurting some commodities, including wheat. More purchases by China gave soybeans a lift, with negotiations set to resume in Washington on Wednesday.

Markets from soybeans to stocks moved higher overnight, given a lift by money managers in a mood to take risk. Negotiators from China are back in Washington today for trade talks moving closer to a deal and more upbeat economic data combined to support buying. One sign of the temperament: The dollar is weak as funds move out of safe havens.

U.S. farmers hope a trade deal with China will reopen that market – and keep it open -- for a variety of the products they produce. But how fast those purchases accelerate is one topic of debate in trade talks this week in Washington that appear to be headed down the home stretch. So far markets aren’t getting much of a lift from the negotiations as traders wait for more news about export sales and weather.

Every day, the CME Group dutifully records daily grain volume and open interest data, which Farm Futures regularly shares with our readers. These numbers ebb and flow on a daily basis, but what do they mean, really, and what implications can they have on grain price trends? Those are two of the questions we answer in the latest Deep Dive podcast.

Hurry up and wait appears to be the mantra today in the markets. More storms moving the middle of the country should keep tractors parked, with wet forecasts for most of the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks. Traffic on the river system north of St. Louis is also at a standstill, with only a couple barges moving because most locks are closed by flooding. Traders are also waiting for more news out of this week’s trade talks with China, looking for word when a deal might get completed.

USDA data

The good news: recent China soybean purchases continue to show up in USDA’s weekly export inspection data. The not-so-good news: the influx of new export inspections is still not keeping pace with the rate needed to match USDA forecasts.

With the announcement of a 60-million-bushel soybean sale to China last week, analysts were already anticipating a big number to be revealed for total soybean exports in the latest USDA report, out Thursday morning. Still, questions surrounding the rest of the 2018/19 marketing year that wraps at the end of August still linger, according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

Market recaps

Grain futures drifted lower overnight as this week’s short covering rally looks ready to take a breather to end the week. While weather remains a positive factor for prices, questions about the details of any trade deal with China are still elusive.

Trade uncertainty with China is still weighing on soybean prices, which dropped nearly 1% Friday. Corn and wheat prices also trended lower on a round of profit-taking today.

Outlook

Basis outlook - High water on the river system like the flooding seen this spring normally means more expensive barge freight costs. The price to ship corn down river is indeed much higher than normal, and is expected to stay that way through the summer. But freight rates actually fell again this week as the river remains closed north of St. Louis, with closures possible through the end of the month, decreasing demand for empties.

Corn outlook - USDA’s March 29 reports produced a lot to talk about. But the bottom line is plain and simple: Growers still own a lot of old crop corn with limited hopes for significant rallies unless they’re willing to roll the dice on a weather rally this summer.

Soybean outlook - USDA’s March 29 reports weren’t bearish for soybeans. With prospective plantings and March 1 stocks both below trade guesses, weakness in beans stemmed mainly from losses in corn.

Energy/ethanol outlook - Houston has a problem, and it could bring at least a little good news for farmers struggling with low profit margins on 2019 crops. The big petrochemical fire at the energy hub of the Gulf added to shipping woes that built over the winter due to fog. Ships stayed at anchor, unable to load crude oil from a burgeoning U.S. supply. That caused stocks to increase last week, apparently halting, at least for now, the attempt by crude oil futures to top $60 a barrel. Futures flirted with that level this week again but were unable to manage a close above the target, which is also close to the 50% retracement of crude oil’s selloff over the fall and winter.

Fertilizer outlook - Retail fertilizer prices stayed stubbornly high through the winter and early spring, reflecting a supply chain disrupted by weather delays and logistical issues. While floodwaters remain, product appears to be moving a few places, with even some bargains surfacing though others terminal are still raising prices.

Wheat outlook - It was high time for the wheat market to move and it finally did on Tuesday. But bearish logic remains unchanged for this market unless fundamentals of supply and demand change radically in coming weeks. Make no mistake: The turnaround from contract lows is driven by short covering from funds that are bearish wheat.

Financial outlook - Anxieties are growing in financial markets as well, and not only on Wall Street. Nonetheless, stock prices are rallying, getting close to a breakout that could trigger a test of last fall’s all-time highs. So what do investors know that the rest of the world is missing?

Energy/ethanol outlook - Houston has a problem, and it could bring at least a little good news for farmers struggling with low profit margins on 2019 crops. The big petrochemical fire at the energy hub of the Gulf added to shipping woes that built over the winter due to fog. Ships stayed at anchor, unable to load crude oil from a burgeoning U.S. supply. That caused stocks to increase last week, apparently halting, at least for now, the attempt by crude oil futures to top $60 a barrel. Futures flirted with that level this week again but were unable to manage a close above the target, which is also close to the 50% retracement of crude oil’s selloff over the fall and winter.