Officials at the Federal Reserve are expected to consider their fourth increase in interest rates since the financial crisis when they gather June 13-14. So far the hikes, each a quarter of 1% since December 2015, have totaled less than 1%, keeping rates at historically low levels.

But farmers say they’re already feeling a pinch from credit tightening as they face another year of shrinking margins and balance sheets.

One in seven growers responding to a Farm Futures survey in March said they expected to have trouble getting all the operating financing they needed this year. Operating rates are the early-warning indicator of a credit squeeze. They reset at least once every year — sometimes more often — unlike loans for machinery and farmland, which tend to have fixed rates. And while rates on term debt are also on the rise, growers are taking out fewer new loans as they scale back purchases of capital assets.

Our survey showed farmers paying an average rate on operating loans of 4.7%, compared to 4.1% for machinery and equipment and 4.4% on farmland.

Even today’s rates are already impacting farms. Those facing pressure pay higher rates, typically 1% or more, according to our survey. Overall debt levels remain well below those seen during the farm crisis of the 1980s. But around 4% of farms we surveyed are considered financially vulnerable, according to industry standards. That is, they have high debt loads and are losing money. And 4% of those surveyed indeed said loan costs were driving them out of business.

Other effects are not as dramatic but show the pinch of tighter money nonetheless. Almost one-quarter of those surveyed had to borrow more to meet higher loan costs, while 18% said rising rates limited their ability to grow. Less than 10% so far face more serious choices, like cutting acres or livestock or selling assets.

Just how high or how fast rates will rise remains a matter of intense speculation on Wall Street. The Fed provides projections of officials taking part in its deliberations every quarter, and these will be updated in June, too. In March, when the bank raised its federal funds target to an average of 0.9%, the median year-end rate forecast for 2017 was 1.4%. This implied two more quarter-point bumps this year, with three on the docket for 2018. By the end of 2019, the federal funds rate would be 3% at its long-term target, an increase of just over 2% from current rates. And that would be enough to ratchet the pain higher.

Half of the more than 1,200 farmers we surveyed said a 2% hike would force them to adjust loan totals, and more than 40% would limit growth. More than one-quarter would cut acres, and nearly 12% believe they could be forced out of business under that scenario.

Those projections likely explain one of the persistent findings from our surveys: Only 13% of today’s growers have debt-to-assets ratios above 40%, traditionally a red flag for lenders. But only 39% believe their incomes will rise in 2017. As a result, 43% of those surveyed admit to worrying about paying back the debt they owe. That’s steady with our survey in January 2017, though down from a peak of 48% in March 2016.

The so-called prime rate big banks charge their best corporate customers typically runs 3% higher than the federal funds rate. Average operating loan rates for farmers historically tacked on an additional 1% or 2% to prime, though many growers now pay close to prime.

Growers face another threat from rising interest rates: farmland prices. Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting showed central bankers discussing how to start winding down its massive holdings in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed purchased these securities to help hold down long-term interest rates in the wake of the financial crisis. The bank won’t just dump trillions of dollars of this debt on the market; it may not sell many, if any. Instead, the Fed will stop reinvesting proceeds from the bonds and notes it holds, gradually shrinking its position as the securities mature.

Buying the assets raised prices of bonds and notes, which move inversely to interest rates. Not reinvesting proceeds means the Fed will be buying fewer securities, slowing demand that could lower prices and raise long-term rates. Rates on 10-year Treasury notes, sometimes used to peg real estate loans, are up around three-quarters of a percent over the past year. That’s not much, but it’s already slashed the theoretical value of land, at least in the eyes of financial analysts.

Most of the movement in rates will likely come on the short end of the yield curve, with changes in the fed funds and prime benchmarks. But some likely will spill over to the cost of real estate loans, putting further pressure on land prices — unless the crop market recovers.

That, of course, is the silver lining in the dark clouds. Despite the doom and gloom of the here and now, 73% of the farmers we surveyed believed the next 20 years will be good for agriculture.