South West Farm Press Logo

Feed grains, farm planning complex in 2025Feed grains, farm planning complex in 2025

2025 Economic Outlook Series: Profits look somewhat elusive in both corn and soybeans, which may not provide clear signals about planted acres going forward.

3 Min Read
corn harvest
Shelley E. Huguley

*This is the eighth article in our 2025 Southwest Economic Outlook series. Oklahoma State University and OSU Extension Service, and Texas A&M University and TAMU AgriLife Extension Service economists weigh in on the 2025 outlook. A digital copy of the Economic Outlook Issue is also available online.

OUTLOOK-LOGO-2025-(1).gif

The corn market, through the summer and fall of 2024, was burdened by supply pressure. The November release of the USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) chipped away at that supply pressure, just not enough to alter the expected farm price.

Production is expected to come in at 15,143 million bushels. While slightly lower than last year’s record of 15,341 million bushels, that makes three of the last four years where the 15,000-million-bushel mark has been eclipsed. 2024 brought in a record per acre production of 183.1 bushels per acre, which provided compensation for the 3.8 million fewer acres harvested in 2023. New production, plus 1,760 million bushels to start the year and a modest 25 million bushels in imports, resulted in a robust total supply of 16,928 million bushels. Grain sorghum experienced a similar trend with lower harvested acres (5.3 million) but higher per-acre yields (60.8 bushels per acre).  Grain sorghum’s total supply is up 2.63% to 351 million bushels.

Related:Drones improve efficiency; require special training

Total corn usage

Total corn usage is anticipated to come in at 14,990 million bushels. Ethanol for fuel, along with feed and residual usage, both found solid footing when compared to recent years. Ethanol for fuel is expected to be at 5,450 million bushels and feed and residual usage is expected at 5,825 million bushels. Corn exports have increased now for the second consecutive year to 2,325 million bushels. For context, the 2020/21 crop year holds the record for exports at 2,747 million bushels.

The collective information above yields corn ending stocks of 1,938 million bushels, up 178 million bushels from last year. A stocks-to-use ratio of 12.9% is the highest since 13.7% in 2019/20. This ample supply has hampered price prospects for growers, with an expected farm price of $4.10 per bushel. This is the same farm price for grain sorghum, whose stocks-to-use ratio fell slightly from 10.0% to 9.7% year over year.

Farm planning in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, multiple issues deserve consideration in farm planning. There is optimism that input costs for farmers will continue to moderate, unfortunately they will likely lag behind the decline of crop prices in recent years. Profits look somewhat elusive in both corn and soybeans, which may not provide clear signals about planted acres going forward. The WASDE report suggests increased beef and broiler production into 2025 providing some support for feed usage. In beef cattle, this comes as feedlot placements continue their strength, and longer feeding periods support heavier carcass weights. Foreign and domestic policy issues also abound as farm bill speculation continues and tariffs, along with potential retaliations, draw headlines.

Related:2025 wheat market: Focus on what is controllable

Multiple years of strong production have created a cushion on the supply front that will need to be lessened to see significant price improvements. Look for profitable pricing opportunities as new information presents itself to the market in 2025.

Read more about:

Risk Management

About the Authors

Scott Clawson

Northeast Area Ag Economics Specialist, Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service

Mark Welch

Economist, marketing, Texas A&M University

Subscribe to receive top agriculture news
Be informed daily with these free e-newsletters

You May Also Like