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Economist offers tips to get through a tough 2025Economist offers tips to get through a tough 2025

Clemson University economist Scott Mickey says farmers will need to look at their production plan on a field-by-field, subset-by-subset basis in 2025.

John Hart, Associate Editor

January 13, 2025

4 Min Read
Tough 2025
Scott Mickey says fertilize for your yield expectations and do things to manage costs through the year.John Hart

When Scott Mickey asked those attending the South Carolina Corn and Soybean Growers meeting at the Santee Conference Center in Santee on Dec. 17 to raise their hands if they expected commodity prices to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024, not one hand went up.

That didn’t surprise the Clemson University ag economist. “I am not the bearer of bad news. We already know what we are looking at,” he said.

2025 will be a year where farmers will need to look at their production plan on a field-by-field, subset-by-subset basis, Mickey said. He added that farmers will need to look at their crop at a smaller level rather than evaluating their overall corn and soybean crops.

“Everybody is entering 2025 with a different risk position,” Mickey said. “Depending how 2024 went for your operation, you’re setting up for 2025 differently. What if we have tariffs and how will that impact the prices we are looking at?

“Fertilize for your yield expectations. We are going to have to do things to manage costs as we go through the year.”

Mickey encouraged attendees to follow the fertility recommendations on their corn and to gear their fertility based on yield expectations as they move around the farm.

Crop insurance

As for crop insurance, Mickey said farmers are starting off 2025 with less risk protection based on what base prices will be.

Related:Preparing for 'fair to middling' crop prices

He said his crop budget for corn for crop insurance was $4.67 per bushel in 2024. If that base period were determined today, he said that level would drop to about $4.33 per bushel, which represents about $40 to $50 per acre in less crop insurance protection in 2025 than they had in 2024.

In his crop budget, Mickey uses a dryland corn yield of 125 bushels per acre.

“At 65% coverage and a $4.33 base price, that’s giving us $352 [in] guaranteed revenue.  We move up to 70 % coverage, it goes to $380. And at 75%, we go to $406,” he said.

For soybeans, Mickey said farmers are expected to have $70 to $100 per acre in less crop insurance protection in 2025.

In his crop budget, Mickey looks at a soybean yield of 35 bushels per acre. At 65% coverage, soybean farmers have guaranteed revenue of $226 an acre.

“You need to look at what your coverage is going to be and see what kind of protection you’re going to have for the crops you’re going to grow in 2025,” he said.

For 2025, Mickey said farmers will need to keep a close watch on the USDA crop reports, particularly the numbers for ending stocks numbers of corn and soybeans.

Mickey cited numbers from USDA’s November crop report, which pegs 2024 U.S. planted corn acres at 91 million, with harvested acres at 83 million. The average U.S. yield, according to the November USDA report, was 183 bushels per acre.

Related:Cotton specialists share risk management advice for '25

This puts total U.S. corn supply at just under 17 billion bushels, the highest the U.S. has seen in three years, Mickey said.

Usage for feed is just under 6 billion bushels, while usage for ethanol is just under 5.5 billion bushels.

Exports for 2024-25 are forecast at 2.32 bushels, compared to exports of 2.3 billion bushels in 2023-24 and 1.6 billion bushels in 2022-23.

“Ending stocks over that time period have still increased, even though our exports have increased quite a bit,” Mickey said.

Ending stocks’ impact

Mickey said ending stocks play a key role in corn prices. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.9 billion bushels in 2024-25, compared to 1.8 billion bushels in 2023-24 and 1.4 billion bushels in 2022-23.

“What impact might tariffs have on exports if the supply side of the 2025 comes true?” Mickey asked.  “If we use just 6 billion for corn and 5.5 [billion] for ethanol — and we only export 2 billion bushels — we are going to have 2.5 billion bushels of carryover.  I’m not saying tariff exports are going to drop that much, but you’ve got to be prepared to make marketing actions based on what you know and what could be happening.”

Related:Focus on fundamentals for corn, soybeans

He explained that exports need to increase in order to keep carryover levels from growing and pushing prices down more. “We are starting out with prices we’re not excited about,” he said.

He added that farmers need to remember that prices won’t remain flat in 2025; they will fluctuate. He encouraged farmers to lock in at higher prices and not wait to lock in prices at harvest when prices are lower for corn.

About the Author

John Hart

Associate Editor, Southeast Farm Press

John Hart is associate editor of Southeast Farm Press, responsible for coverage in the Carolinas and Virginia. He is based in Raleigh, N.C.

Prior to joining Southeast Farm Press, John was director of news services for the American Farm Bureau Federation in Washington, D.C. He also has experience as an energy journalist. For nine years, John was the owner, editor and publisher of The Rice World, a monthly publication serving the U.S. rice industry.  John also worked in public relations for the USA Rice Council in Houston, Texas and the Cotton Board in Memphis, Tenn. He also has experience as a farm and general assignments reporter for the Monroe, La. News-Star.

John is a native of Lake Charles, La. and is a  graduate of the LSU School of Journalism in Baton Rouge.  At LSU, he served on the staff of The Daily Reveille.

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