Grow big and prepare for a ride. This is where most farmers are today, producing commodities. “In a commodity business, you have to grow big, boost productivity, successfully manage risk, exploit economies of scale and own a lot of assets, he says. “Today’s more dangerous world means volatile markets. Are bouncy oil prices a glimpse of things to come in other commodity markets? And today’s electorate is far less willing to subsidize farm losses,” Drabenstott says.

Grow new and own the ride. Instead of trying to tame commodity markets, “seize new markets and the higher profits that accompany them,” Drabenstott says. “Manage both production and market risk. And, own a bigger piece of the value chain.” These products run the gamut, from near commodities, like non-GMO soybeans, to organic produce.

Grow your region and own the future. “Of all the new food markets, pick a few where your region can become a real player in the market,” he says. “By creating some critical mass, you stand a better chance of success, and the ultimate payoffs will enhance your region and build a rural home for future generations. This also helps to attract and retain talent for a world-class business.”

Rapid change provides a huge premium for innovation. A more dangerous world hurts trade and growth and boosts risk a lot, he says. “In this environment, farmers who innovate will be highly rewarded.”

New food, new markets and a consumer focus on fresh, local authentic quality food spell opportunity. “Old markets don’t work to deliver the products consumers want today,” Drabenstott says. “Processed food from commodities delivered yesterday represents an outdated model. Today, food is all about choice and freshness.”

Weaker economic growth, more volatile markets and historically low interest rates are disincentives to save (money) and invest.

More U.S. businesses have been dying than being born recently.  The overburden of regulation has stifled innovation at a time when it is needed most.  Even the biggest companies are struggling to keep up. “Three-quarters of the current Standard and Poor’s 500 companies will be gone in 13 years,” he says.