By Josh Maples, Mississippi State University

Cattle prices have dipped the past few weeks at auction markets across the southeast. In Mississippi, average prices for 500-600 pound steers hovered around $270 per CWT for the past few months before slipping closer to $250 per CWT since mid-August. 

Futures market contract prices have been volatile and also dipped during August. For example, the CME October feeder cattle futures contract (700-899 pound steers) is trading close to $240 per CWT today as compared to roughly $256 at the end of July.

Prices in other Southeastern states may be at different levels but have mostly followed a similar pattern. While market participants remain generally optimistic about relatively strong prices into 2025, the dip in prices recently suggests 2024 will not follow the same pattern as 2023 when calf prices seemingly defied seasonal pressures in many markets.

The first chart above shows the seasonal index levels of 500-600 pound steer prices in Mississippi. Prices from 2011-2023 were used to calculate the averages. The numbers are not dollars. Instead, the seasonal price index measures the seasonal changes in prices relative to the annual average price. Monthly index values greater (less) than 1 indicate that prices in that month are above (below) the annual average. The upper and lower lines show the upper and lower standard deviations which are measures of how variable prices are during those months compared to the annual average.

Prices for 500-600 pound steers usually dip seasonally into the fall months with October typically being the low point in Mississippi. This corresponds with the typical seasonal production pattern of producers weaning and selling calves this time of year. The seasonal price index of 0.95 for October suggests that average prices for 500-600 pound steers in Mississippi are typically five percent lower than the annual average.

The second chart shows average prices in Mississippi for 500-600 pound steers over the past few years. 2023 did not exhibit a seasonal decline in prices during the usual seasonal-low months. A similar pattern occurred in 2014. Prices during September and October were some of the highest of the year. Pretty much all of 2023 and early 2024 was a transition period from relatively low prices toward the higher price levels we see now. This transition masked many of the seasonal patterns we’d normally expect.

Prices over the past few weeks suggest seasonal patterns may be more evident in 2024 than they were in 2023. There has not been a clear fundamental shift in cattle supply or demand to suggest the recent price declines are a push toward a persistent lower price environment. Year-over-year cattle supplies are still tight and herd expansion does not yet appear to be occurring. However, seasonal patterns within a year are still important and a dip in prices during the heavy calf-selling time of the year is typical in most years.

Maples is an agricultural economist with Mississippi State University Extension.