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Drought recipe relies on La Nina

La Nina is key to drought. Dry soil enhances the problem. Long-term drought is possible.

Most farmers, ranchers and anyone else who appreciates a good rain now and then may not be interested, but Texas A&M professor of meteorology and state climatologist Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon has a pretty good recipe for drought.

“Start with La Nina,” he advises. Then enhance that effect with a warm Atlantic Ocean.

“Subtract luck.

“Dry out the soil and keep it dry. Repel tropical disturbances.

 “Enhance with global warming.

“Repeat.”

Gammons, speaking recently at the Beef Financial Management Conference in Amarillo, said those conditions offer the possibility that the current drought could persist for another 5 years, possibly even 15. He said the Southwest is in a “period of drought susceptibility and global patterns favor drought.

“With the returning La Nina, drought is likely to continue,” he said.

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