Napa, Calif., wine distributor Gary Agajanian has seen his industry face plenty of challenges in recent years, from devastating wildfires to COVID-19 shutdowns to an oversupply of grapes that has forced some growers to leave fruit on the vines.
But Agajanian, founder of Agajanian Vineyards and Wine Co., believes the industry will slowly rebound.
“It’ll bounce back,” Agajanian told Farm Press during the Unified Wine and Grape Symposium in Sacramento. “I think it’ll be a climb up a ladder over the next 18 months. By 2026 it should be a healthier market, and by 2027 we’ll be back to a solid market.”
Agajanian’s optimism was shared by many at the wine symposium, held Jan. 28-30, even as changes in consumer attitudes about alcohol, more competition among drink choices, oversized grape crops and increases in production costs in recent years have cast some clouds over an industry that had grown accustomed to sunny outlooks over the last few decades.
At a much-anticipated state of the industry presentation, market experts took a more upbeat tone than in recent years, outlining the industry’s challenges but also noting opportunities for responding to the changes in consumer taste, such as with lower-alcohol or no-alcohol wines.
“It’s tough, but we think things are going to get better,” said Glenn Proctor of the Ciatti Co., one of four experts to address the standing-room-only audience on Jan. 29. “The market is going to improve … This is the time to engage these new consumers. The wine industry isn’t going anywhere, but it’s changed.”
Industry analyst Danny Brager added that 36 of the nation’s top 100 wine brands are growing. He urged brands to collaborate where appropriate and “connect with the consumer,” including by identifying which occasions they may wish to enjoy wine. Traditional wine occasions are in decline, but there are other occasions “where wine could win,” including in stadiums, he said.
Vineyard removals
Allied Grape Growers’ Jeff Bitter, who rocked the 2024 symposium by calling for California growers to remove 50,000 acres of vineyards to correct an oversupply of grapes, noted at this year’s conference that growers removed about 37,500. But nearly 20,000 acres of new vineyards came online last year.
“We did pull out a lot of grapes last year,” he said. “We’re not there. We’re closer, but … we all know the market is subject to change.”
He again called for 50,000 acres of removals in 2025, including 28,000 acres in coastal regions, to achieve a net statewide reduction of about 30,000 acres. He added that lending companies are less inclined to give loans to producers who don’t have contracts for their grapes. But “spot market dynamics are changing,” with more grapes sold in that fashion every year, and positive consumer sentiment could improve the market, he said.
“Don’t discount the positive consumer,” he said.
About 10,000 wine industry professionals attended the 2025 symposium, which featured 25 different sessions on everything from emerging vineyard technologies to adopting new marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers. A trade show with nearly 900 exhibitors showcased the latest technology, equipment and services for the wine industry.
The symposium’s upbeat tone followed a Jan. 23 industry report from Silicon Valley Bank that similarly noted several positive market indicators, despite an overall decline in global wine demand in the last year. Report author Rob McMillan, SVB’s Wine Division founder, said the industry is in its first demand-based correction in three decades.
“We have been predicting a generational shift for many years, and the 2025 report data solidifies the wine industry is now living that reality,” McMillan said. “Different parts of the industry will heal at different times, but we can expect a continued downturn for some time before we reach flat growth.”
Bitter said he agreed with McMillan’s assessment. “I think what we’re going to see is more of a soft-landing scenario” for some varieties, he said.
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