
Rising U.S. dollar value is killing pricesRising U.S. dollar value is killing prices
Grain Scoops: Since January 2024, the value of the U.S. dollar has increased 17% compared to the Russian ruble, 27% against the Argentine peso, 7.7% against the euro and 6.6% against the Australian dollar. The relatively high value of the U.S. dollar may imply below-average prices.
February 4, 2025

If the U.S. dollar value were the same today as it was a year ago relative to the Russian ruble, Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices could possibly be 17% higher. Since January 2024, the value of the U.S. dollar has increased by 17% compared to the Russian ruble, 27% against the Argentine peso, 7.7% against the euro and 6.6% against the Australian dollar.
At this writing, the price of wheat in Pond Creek, Okla., is $5.06. However, Russia tends to set the world’s hard red winter wheat price. Therefore, if Pond Creek’s wheat price is adjusted for the higher value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Russian ruble in January 2024, Pond Creek’s 2025 wheat price could be $5.92 ($5.06 x 1.17).
Brazil is the largest export competitor for U.S. corn and soybeans. Since January 2024, the value of the Brazilian real has declined 18% compared to the U.S. dollar. This implies that if the U.S. dollar value were the same relative to the real as in January 2024, corn and soybean prices could be 18% higher. Pond Creek’s $4.55 corn could be $5.37, and the price of soybeans could be $11.40 rather than $9.66.
Grain prices don’t change 1:1 for changes in the U.S. dollar value compared to other currencies. Grain prices tend to go up, compared to other currencies, when the U.S. dollar value declines and grain prices go down when the U.S. dollar value increases.
For example, wheat prices averaged $5.69 in January 2024. If the U.S. dollar value were the same now as in January 2024, prices would be higher, although probably not 17% higher as used in this example. The point is that prices would be higher with a lower-valued U.S. dollar.
In Reed Anthony, Cattleman: An Autobiography (Andy Adams, A Public Domain Book,1 907), Anthony ends the book with the following:
“I now understand perfectly why the business world dreads a political change in administration. Whatever may have been the policy of one political party, the reverse becomes the slogan of the other . . . Politics had never affected my occupation (cattle) seriously; in fact, I profited richly through the extravagance and mismanagement of the Reconstruction regime in Texas, and again met the defeat of my life at the hands of the general government.”
The change from the Biden to the Trump administration will bring policy changes that impact the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. Policy changes will also impact trade, which impacts both the prices received and the costs of most production inputs. The next few months are uncertain policy-wise. The market (supply and demand) will tend to bring prices back to “normal” levels.
Wheat may be forward contracted for 2025 harvest delivery at Pond Creek, Okla., for $5.27 (KEN25 - $0.50), at Perryton, Texas, for $5.17 (KEN25 - $0.60) and at Weatherford, Okla. for $5.02 (KEN25 -$0.75).
The 2009 through 2024 average price of wheat during harvest (June through August) is $5.80. The average Oklahoma harvest price from 2009 through 2024 is $5.79. The average Texas harvest price is $5.76.
The January 2025 WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reported that the world’s wheat stocks (S-T-U) ratio is projected to be 32% compared to the 2009/10 through 2023/24 marketing year average of 34%. The U.S. hard red winter wheat S-T-U ratio is projected to be 58% compared to an average of 50%. The S-T-U ratio of all U.S. wheat is projected to be 40%, compared to an average of 41%.
The S-T-U ratios may imply that the Oklahoma/Texas 2025 harvest price should be about average ($5.76 - $5.80). This may be trumped by the relatively high value of the U.S. dollar, which may imply below-average prices.
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