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Records projected to fall in rice, corn and beans

Big U.S. yields are translating into big crops for corn and soybeans. However, U.S. ending stocks for both crops are expected to remain tight on strong demand, according to USDA’s August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

For example, the 120-million bushel increase in U.S. corn production would be more than offset by a 30-million bushel increase in domestic corn use and a 100-million bushel increase in exports.

Projections for a record-tying soybean yield of 44 bushels would push U.S. soybean production to a record 3.4 billion bushels, 88 million bushels above last month’s projection. However, much of the increase would be offset by a projected 65 million bushel increase in exports, reflecting strong exports to China and reduced soybean stocks in South America. Projected China soybean imports were raised to 49.5 million tons and 52 million tons, respectively for 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Soybean U.S. ending stocks are unchanged from last month, while ending stocks for corn are projected 61 million bushels lower, to 1.3 billion bushels, the lowest in 4 years.

Meanwhile sorghum feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels higher with larger supplies. Sorghum exports were raised 10 million bushels with higher expected demand from Mexico.

The U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 245.9 million hundredweight, down 4.1 million from last month’s projection, but up 26 million from 2009-10. Average yield is forecast at 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118 pounds per acre from last month and a decrease of 46 pounds per acre from last year.

Long-grain production is forecast at a record 187.2 million hundredweight, but down 2.8 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.6 million, down 1.4 million from a month ago.

Rice export projections were raised 1 million hundredweight from last month to 114 million hundredweight, based mostly on large food aid announcements for shipment early in the marketing year. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports were projected 5 million hundredweight higher, and rough rice export projections were lowered 4 million hundredweight.

U.S. rice ending stocks for 2010-11 are estimated at 56.8 million hundredweight, down 10.6 million from last month, but up 22.9 million from the previous year, and the highest stocks since 1985-86.

Global rice production for 2010-11 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, nearly the same as a month ago. Global consumption was raised from a month ago largely due to an increase for India. World ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 97.5 million tons, up 900,000 tons from last month, largely the result of upward revisions for Bangladesh, Burma, India, and Turkey.

U.S. cotton exports were raised 700,000 bales to 15 million bales based on larger supplies and higher foreign import demand.

Projected world cotton consumption was raised to nearly 121 million bales, 2.7 percent above last season. China imports were raised 850,000 bales, accounting for about three-fourths of the 1.2 million-bale increase in world imports. Exports are higher mainly in India and the United States. World ending stocks are now projected at 45.6 million bales. If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio of 38 percent would be the smallest since 1994-95.

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