Despite layoffs in the farm equipment sector, Kip Eideberg with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers is optimistic about the sector's long-term health.

“U.S. equipment manufacturing is enjoying a renaissance,” said Eideberg, senior vice president of government and industry relations for AEM. He further described the machinery manufacturing market as “strong and resilient,” as part of a policy panel held in conjunction with the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia said record job growth over the last few years is the result of cutting red tape and making it easier for businesses to expand.

“We have to do all of these things: Be business friendly; make sure people want to live where there are opportunities; make sure talent is trained; have the most robust infrastructure; and have a power plan to meet [goals],” Youngkin said, noting that expanding clean energy is a part of that vision.

Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., said Wisconsin is likewise experiencing growth in equipment manufacturing, which makes up about 20% of the state’s total economic output.

“We’re creating environments that are conducive to business growth,” he said. “We need to make sure we’re not stifling innovation and development in the United States.”

A July industry report from Arizton, a Chicago-based market research company, backs up this perspective with data. Despite the current downturn, America’s agricultural equipment marketplace is expected to grow through 2029. The upward trend is projected to be driven by increasing population, rising urbanization and changing dietary patterns, among other things.

Buoyed by government support, the report highlights “a noticeable shift towards sustainable agriculture practices. … The focus on enhancing productivity and expanding agricultural exports has driven the country's demand for advanced equipment.”

More layoffs

This optimistic sentiment belies an uncertain year for skilled laborers in farm equipment manufacturing. John Deere, among other machinery manufacturers, laid off more than 1,000 workers from its U.S. factories since spring. More are expected by year-end.

In July, Deere & Co. laid off at least 345 employees from its John Deere Waterloo Works, 310 from John Deere Davenport and 279 from John Deere Harvester Works, according to a report from the Iowa Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.

A statement from Deere sent to news publications attributes economic challenges, rising costs and less demand as reasons for the staffing reductions. Machinery sales have declined by about 20% year over year.

Concurrently, Deere announced plans to move its skid-steer loaders and compact truck loader manufacturing from a Dubuque, Iowa, facility to Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, by 2026. In 2022, Deere announced plans to move cab production from its Waterloo facility to Mexico by 2024. Back then, the brand estimated the shift would impact 250 employees and cited a need to “balance workforce needs within the tight labor market.”

Large and small brands are also pulling back. Google, for example, recently announced plans to wind down its agricultural intelligence startup, Mineral, about a year after it emerged on the market. Data from AgFunder, an agricultural tech investment company, has tracked $7 billion across 427 deals this year. This is down from last year, which saw $8 billion invested across 934 deals during the same time period.

Short-term impact

At auction, the economic spiral is pushing machinery prices downward at an increasing clip. The latest market report from Sandhills Global reveals a widening span between dealer-lot asking values and auction prices.

“The spread between asking and auction values has grown significantly over the past few months,” said Ryan Dolezal, manager at TractorHouse. “While dealers have begun to cut prices, this spread exceeds historical values. Dealers should monitor these trends closely, as we expect a large influx of equipment ahead of this year’s harvest season.”

Compounding the economic decline, high interest rates and an uncertain political future are causing trepidation throughout the market. There’s also a large amount of inventory crowding dealer lots. While inventory of high-horsepower tractors has declined slightly in recent months, it’s still up more than 40% year over year.

The latest tractor and combine report from AEM, likewise, plots a downward trend. Year over year, U.S. sales of tractors and combines in June fell. Two-wheel-drive tractors dropped 16.3% compared to 2023, while four-wheel-drive tractors fell 1.3% within the same time frame. Combine sales finished the month 31% below June 2023.

“June’s sales of ag tractors and combines follow a May that also showed a slowdown in sales,” said Curt Blades, AEM senior vice president, in a statement. “This softness in the market follows a robust five years of sales. The challenges facing the subcompact tractor market illustrate why the passage of a strong farm bill is so needed to lift rural America and our farmers and growers.”