by Bruce Einhorn and Angus Whitley

President Donald Trump’s new tariff threat would no doubt leave American shoppers feeling the pain of his trade war with China like never before.

Days before what was potentially the final round of talks with China on a deal to end a dispute now in its second year, Trump channeled “Tariff Man” once again, threatening to more than double import levies on $200 billion of made-in-China goods. Accusing the Chinese side of hampering progress with attempts to renegotiate, Trump took to Twitter, saying he plans to hike tariffs from the current 10% to 25% on Friday.

Trump also went further, saying he’d slap 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of imports from China, a move that would effectively tax everything the world’s largest factory sends to the U.S. Those taxes would bring some of America’s most-popular consumer goods into the fight -- from Apple Inc.’s iPhones to Nike sneakers. Trump has thus far avoided them in an attempt to avoid a public backlash over paying higher prices.

“We’re trying to figure out where this is heading,” said David French, senior vice president of government affairs for the National Retail Federation. “Whether this is a negotiating tactic or an out-and-out escalation.”

Investors saw it as the latter, for now, as stocks of retailers and consumer products sold off amid a global rout. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF declined as much as 1.8% Monday. Still, reports saying that the Chinese delegation was still making its trip to the U.S. to continue negotiations was “encouraging,” French said.

Related:China reportedly considering options after Trump tweet

If Trump makes good on his latest threats, here’s where U.S. shoppers might feel the most pain:

Nike, Under Armour

From marathoners to weekend activewear fans, sneaker buyers across America will have to pay more for running, tennis or soccer shoes, some of the $11.4 billion of footwear the U.S. imported from China last year. The American Apparel & Footwear Association said consumers are already facing higher prices after almost a year of trade tensions. “Now the crisis will only get worse,’’ it said in a statement.

The association estimates that a family of four will pay at least $500 more a year on apparel and footwear if the threatened tariffs are levied.

Despite a shift toward lower-cost manufacturing bases like Vietnam and Bangladesh, China is still the single biggest source of apparel globally. A 2018 survey by the U.S. Fashion Industry Association said that companies still source 11% to 30% of their apparel from Chinese factories. While this is down from 30% to 50% the year before, China is still the most important source of clothing.

Nike has almost a fifth of its factories located in China, accounting for 13% -- 144,000 people -- of its supplier workforce. For footwear alone, a quarter of its factories are located in China.

Sporting enthusiasts, from cyclists to golfers, will find their gear dearer too. Pretty much every part of a bicycle, from saddles and spokes to tubes and frames, would be slapped with a 25% tariff. The same goes for China-made golf bags, baseball mitts and batting gloves. If you’re on the water, Trump’s taxes would sink Made-in-China inflatable boats and canoes. The U.S. imported $27 billion of toys and sports equipment from China in 2018, government data show.

Apple

On Twitter, Trump said tariffs on the $325 billion of additional Chinese imports will come into force “shortly.” That would mean higher prices for a range of Apple devices from smartphones to watches and headphones. “All tariffs ultimately show up as a tax on U.S. consumers,” Cupertino, California-based Apple told the Office of U.S. Trade Representative in a letter in September. The U.S. imported $71.8 billion of mobile phones and other household goods from China last year.

In December, Bloomberg reported that Apple’s suppliers can keep production in China if tariffs were at a 10% level, but could consider shifting them out of the country if levies reach 25% -- the level Trump is now threatening.

Walmart

Trump’s tariffs would hit household staples in almost every aisle of the local Walmart. Think leather goods and handbags, soaps and shampoos, and plates and cups. Kitting out a new home? Prepare to pay more for China-made fridges and freezers, and knives and forks. In a September letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Walmart said a 25% tariff be a “serious burden” on lower-income families. “Either consumers will pay more, suppliers will receive less, retail margins will be lower, or consumers will buy fewer products or forgo purchases altogether,” the retailer said.

Lowe’s

There’d be no escape for Chinese-made hedge shears, chainsaw blades and lawnmower parts at the home improvements chain. The cost of hammers, screwdrivers and woodworking equipment from China would likely climb, too. Lowe’s said in February, as it announced fourth-quarter earnings, that tariffs were already eating into the company’s profit margins.

Target Corp.

The price of Chinese-made lipsticks and makeup, suitcases and vacuum cleaners would all likely rise if Trump gets his way. In a Sept. 6 letter to Lighthizer, retailer Target said it was concerned proposed duties would further hurt consumers and urged Trump’s administration to reconsider. That’s a sentiment echoed by the National Retail Federation after Trump’s latest pledge. “If the administration follows through on this threat, American consumers will face higher prices and U.S. jobs will be lost,’’ French, the group’s senior vice president, said in a statement.

Some discount retailers may be cornered by yet more tariffs. Because of the price sensitivity of its customers, Dollar Tree Inc. can’t easily pass on to them the cost of the trade-war, Chief Executive Officer Gary Philbin said in its submission to Lighthizer.

--With assistance from Matt Townsend.

To contact the reporters on this story:

Bruce Einhorn in Hong Kong at [email protected];

Angus Whitley in Sydney at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story:

Emma O'Brien at [email protected]

Rachel Chang, Lisa Wolfson

© 2019 Bloomberg L.P.