You may have heard there’s an election today. Perhaps you’ve received a text begging for money or suffered through endless political ads during football games. People of all political persuasions will no doubt welcome the end of that. Now all we can do is sit back and watch the results come in. But what should we be watching for?

Anything could happen in presidential race

If you’ve paid any attention to the presidential race, you probably heard experts mention the seven so-called swing states likely to turn the election. They include Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.

Depending on how quickly the votes are counted, the three easternmost states may give us an early indicator of how the night will go. In the last 40 years, Georgia has only voted for a Democratic president twice. North Carolina only has once since 1976. If Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris manages to snag either of those states, it could signal a long night for the Republican candidate Donald Trump.

If Trump takes Pennsylvania and manages to hold Georgia or North Carolina, Harris’ path to victory becomes much more challenging. She’d need to win all but one of the remaining swing states in that scenario.

Of course, if either candidate wins all three eastern states, they will clinch the election regardless of the other swing states. According to some congressional insiders, that may not be as farfetched as it seems.

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“I don’t think it will be a close election, but I’m not sure who will win,” one Republican source says.

That sentiment was echoed by a second GOP official in the Senate, who noted Trump’s chances will likely depend on low-propensity voters. Those people support the former president but typically don’t vote. The margins in the swing states remain extremely close, but if voters there shift in the same direction, it could lead to a larger-than-expected electoral win.

Democratic congressional sources say they will be watching closely to see where the votes are coming from. Harris appears to have made inroads among rural women. It remains to be seen if that will be enough to get her over the top.

Sources from both parties say they won’t be shocked if some non-swing states deliver surprising results. A few internal polls indicate support for Harris has been stronger than expected in heartland states like Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. This comes after a new Iowa poll showed Harris surprisingly ahead in the Hawkeye State. Conversely, some Republicans believe they may be faring better than expected in bluer states like New Hampshire or New Mexico.

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House control up in the air

While the spotlight will shine brightest on the presidential contest, the outcomes in the congressional races will be just as impactful on agriculture. All 435 seats are up for grabs, but only around 40 or so are considered competitive races.

Republicans currently hold an eight-seat advantage in the House. However, they will be defending 19 seats in districts Joe Biden won in 2020. Democrats are only defending eight districts Trump won four years ago.

Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., who sits on the House Ag Committee, is a big one to watch. His district was redrawn the by the state’s Republican legislature to give the GOP a better shot in the traditional Democratic stronghold. Davis was one of four Democrats to vote for the House Republican farm bill earlier this year. Observers on both sides are anxious to see if that helps him win support from more Republicans and Independents in a tight battle against Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout.

Colorado’s Yadira Caraveo also supported the Republican farm bill plan. She is facing tough battle against Republican Gave Evans in a race that could prove pivotal in the battle for House control.

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Republicans on the House Agriculture Committee facing tough reelection battles include Iowa’s Mariannette Miller-Meeks who is trailing Democrat Christina Bohannan in recent polls. According to the latest polls. Nebraska’s Don Bacon is also fighting an uphill battle against Democrat Tony Vargas.

GOP sources are keeping a close eye on turnout in Minnesota and Illinois. Some data suggest Rep. Angie Craig from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District may have a harder time defeating challenger Joe Teirab than expected. Republican sources also say they will also be watching who turns out for Illinois Democrat Nikki Budzinski. She has a rural constituency and appears to have a safe lead on challenger Joshua Lloyd. Some in the GOP suggest the race could have been more competitive if they’d fielded a stronger candidate.

Insiders on both sides believe we likely won’t know who wins the House immediately. The wait could drag on for weeks as results votes are counted and recounted. Several California races could be too close to call on election night.

“I think we are are feeling cautiously optimistic that we will have a majority, but it’s definitely not a foregone conclusion,” one Democratic source says. “We don’t have the same concerns that Senate Democrats are facing.”

Republicans favored to take Senate

Indeed, it’s a much different story in the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage. That majority includes four Independent Senators who side with the Democrats.

A total of 34 seats are up for grabs. Twenty-three of them are held by Democrats or Independents allied with them. The problem for the Dems is that three seats are in states that lean heavily Republican.

Longtime West Virginia Democrat turned Independent Joe Manchin is retiring from the Senate. Republican Gov. Jim Justice will almost certainly beat Democratic challenger Glenn Elliott, with polls showing him up by as much as 30%. This is not much of a surprise given almost 70% of West Virginia voters supported Donald Trump in 2020.

With practically no hope of winning West Virginia, Democrats are nervously watching races in Montana and Ohio, where the incumbents, Sens. John Tester and Sherrod Brown, face tough reelection battles. Throughout the year, most polls have shown Tester trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in Montana. The race has tightened in recent weeks giving Democrats some hope.

Polls also show Brown, Ohio’s only statewide elected Democratic officeholder, trailing in a tight race with Republican Bernie Moreno. If either Sheehy or Moreno wins, that would give the GOP control of the Senate, barring an unexpected loss.

That’s where the math gets tricky for Democrats. Their best chance of taking a seat from the GOP may be in Texas where Sen. Ted Cruz is in a tougher-than-expected race against Democrat Collin Allred. Of course, Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994.

Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., is also facing a tougher-than-expected battle against Independent Dan Osborn.

Still, even if Democrats manage to pull off a couple of upsets, they may still be hard-pressed to hold onto seats in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. If Trump has a strong showing in those states, he could help the GOP pick up additional Senate seats.

Suffice to say there will be plenty to keep an eye on election night. Buckle up and enjoy a tasty beverage if you are so inclined. At least the political ads should be over.