
Farm assistance options if no farm bill, January deadlines importantFarm assistance options if no farm bill, January deadlines important
It is unlikely that a new farm bill will pass before the new administration takes office in January. Until then, economist Amy Hagerman encourages producers to monitor disaster programs and meet their upcoming deadlines.

Chances of Congress passing a farm bill before the new administration takes over in January are possible but slim, says Amy Hagerman, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist.
“We could see a farm bill passed by the lame duck session,” Hagerman says, “but I doubt it.”

Amy Hagerman, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist. (Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)
She explains that when Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Stabenow introduced a bill, it met “with general dissatisfaction among the Republican members. A lot of push and pull is happening now, even within the Republican party. Big differences, philosophical differences, exist regarding spending.”
All that despite dire need across America’s farmland, much of which has been battered by drought, floods, and hurricane damage this year.
Options
“We need to see either an extension of the farm program or something in the spending bill to prevent negative consequences that accompany rolling over into permanent legislation on January 1,” Hagerman says. “That's the big thing we're watching for now; some action has to be taken in that space to open Title 1 programs for producers to sign up.”
Sign-up usually takes place in October. “Because the farm bill has expired, they haven't been able to do that, so they need to watch January deadlines. A lot of deadlines hit in January. Many of the disaster programs tend to have January deadlines; farmers also need to watch March deadlines because we may have a shorter window to make some of the Title 1 decisions in the spring, and NAP encourages producers to watch for possible disaster program deadlines following intense drought in 2024 in the Southern Plains states.

“Watch for new disaster programs now; let the things in Washington sort themselves out going into this new Congress. The biggest thing for now is not to miss near-term deadlines,” says Amy Hagerman, Oklahoma State University economist.
“I anticipate additional disaster programs associated with that. So, make sure to get livestock forage program applications in for any eligible county by January 30. Watch for future ERP (Emergence Relief Program) and ERLP (Emergency Livestock Relief Program) deadlines for new year disaster funding.”
Hagerman says that extreme drought losses in the South Plains, flooding in New Mexico, and hurricanes in the Southeast also require disaster aid.
“Watch for new disaster programs now; let the things in Washington sort themselves out going into this new Congress. The biggest thing for now is not to miss near-term deadlines.”
Help available
She expects disaster aid programs will be available. “They have the ERP program, and I think a lot of farmers, especially for Phase 1 of the program, which worked off crop insurance and NAP coverage, thought it was a streamlined process. Phase 2 was a different beast and worked off tax returns. “Producers had to have Phase 1 done and then do Phase 2 calculations. If any payment was left over after the Phase 1 payment, another payment was made under Phase 2. It was a lot more complicated.”
Insurance
Hagerman says most South Plains farmers have some level of crop insurance. “We have pretty good crop insurance adoption across the Southern Plains states, as well as across the Southwest and Southeast. But crop insurance is not likely to cover all losses for most crops.
“And coverage for some crops is more limited or not available because they don't have as much county production history. Those crops are more exposed when a disaster occurs.

Economist Amy Hagerman expects increased reference prices to be a priority when Congress debates a new farm bill. (Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)
“That’s why I think disaster programs are extremely important and should help producers who are more exposed with limited crop insurance options. Crop insurance must meet certain criteria to work well in a county, including a good production history for emerging or less commonly produced crops.”
When Congress does debate a new farm bill, Hagerman expects reference prices will be a priority.
“Farmers want to see the increase in reference prices that has been proposed in both the House and the Senate. I think that will happen if they can find support for increasing funding.”
Cost hikes
Significant cost of production hikes since the 2018 farm program was enacted make reference price adjustments critical, Hagerman says
“Cost of production has gone up significantly over that time. So, if we're looking at an effective safety net for producers, we have to cover those cost increases, give producers the opportunity, the resources, and the tools to cover their costs of production.”
Hagerman says production costs are “sticky relative to crop prices. Costs of production do not come down at the same rate as crop prices.”
She says an effective safety net must be calibrated to current market conditions. “I hope to see the reference price increase, calibrating a bit beyond what the effective reference price calculations were from the 2018 farm bill.”
She thinks crop insurance incentives will also be addressed. “I anticipate support for increasing the incentives to participate in the Supplemental Coverage Option, Enhanced Coverage Option, and STAX. I’m not certain how those will look, what technical changes will be made, and how incentives will be put in place. I think something will happen in that space.”

Agriculture voices need to be heard, says Amy Hagerman, Oklahoma State University economist. “I am hopeful that if an agriculture council is formed again, some strong voices will speak out against blanket tariffs and the potential damage they pose for agriculture.” (Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)
She says attention to production prices is vital. “They are not going down. Those big increases hit input suppliers. Their costs are increasing. Think about the cost of trucking, the amount of liability for truckers and the cost of liability insurance. Look at where cost increases occur. Production costs do not decrease much under our current economy.”
Tariffs
She says widespread tariffs will make it worse. “Significant tariffs and resulting retaliatory tariffs will drive a wedge between prices and costs. Retail prices rise because importers will pass the cost of the tariffs forward to somebody. They either reduce what they're willing to offer for goods coming in, or they increase the cost at the end of the supply chain, the retail or wholesale point for consumers. Someone along the supply chain must absorb the cost of that tariff.”
Agriculture voices need to be heard, Hagerman says. “I am hopeful that if an agriculture council is formed again, some strong voices will speak out against blanket tariffs and the potential damage they pose for agriculture.”
It will be an interesting year, she says.
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