With the summertime national party conventions past, the heart of the fall campaign swing will command national headlines through election day in early November. There are plenty of stories, theories and predictions for the run for the White House and for control of the Senate and House of Representatives.

From the campaign materials and news accounts, there also are numerous ideas about what could happen for ag and other policies in the coming year. Depending on the election outcome, it is conceivable to imagine several different directions, meaning a great deal of uncertainty facing ag producers and policy stakeholders.

What about the farm bill?

The first question might be the fate of the farm bill itself, and the key question may be more about the timing than the content. The primary policy battles within the farm bill appear to focus on food and conservation funding. Policymakers have not yet resolved the long-running battle over the amount of food assistance funding and the balance of food versus farm funding in the bill. They also have not come to an agreement on funding in the conservation title for climate practices versus other conservation practices.

Although these and other issues in the bill present real challenges to getting a farm bill complete, the real question might be the timing. By almost all accounts, the opportunity to finish a bill on time before expiration at the end of September is gone, and the reality is that the first real chance to finish a farm bill will come in a lame-duck session of Congress after the election.

Related:How policy can drive market for biofuels

If the election produces a split in party control, such as what currently exists in Washington, then one could imagine a Congress willing to work toward compromise that gets the bill done and off the agenda for the coming year. If the election gives control of the federal government, or at least control of Congress, to one party, then policymakers may be emboldened to hold out until the new session of Congress and start the process over.

Save for the slim prospects of a compromise bill during the lame-duck session, another one-year extension of the current farm bill seems most likely.

Other policy questions

Although the farm bill may command the biggest policy headlines for ag audiences, it may not even be the biggest policy issue on the radar that could affect agriculture. Trade, tax, energy and climate, labor and immigration, and regulatory policy all could be affected by policy decisions that are themselves affected by the election.

Related:What does Supreme Court Chevron doctrine ruling mean?

Trade. Both major political parties have focused on a national agenda that seems to downplay the role of international trade, or at least the goal of pursuing multilateral trade agreements to liberalize trade. In some discussions, it appears commercial trade could take a back seat to geopolitics, while in others, the path to trade could go through conflict and confrontation.

Taxes. Tax policy will be up for major debate in the next Congress, regardless of which party controls the agenda. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 includes tax provisions that expire in 2025. Beyond a fundamental debate over appropriate tax policy and provisions, even a simple extension of current rules that temporarily reduce individual tax rates and estate tax provisions, among other items, would create budget challenges for future passage.

Energy and climate. Energy policy and climate policy have been contentious for more than a decade, and future policy choices may determine the balance of regulations versus incentives versus market opportunities across the agricultural production system and supply chain.

Labor and immigration. Labor and immigration issues also have been a point of contention for years, with insurmountable political obstacles despite the obvious need for a practical solution.

Regulations. Even basic regulatory issues will be a major question going forward. As noted in discussion of the Supreme Court ruling against the Chevron doctrine earlier this year, the regulatory process itself could become much more challenging. If the courts are no longer to defer questions of statutory interpretation to the executive branch, then Congress will need to work harder to be clearer in legislative intent and language, while both the executive branch and the judicial branch still will need to work through a new precedent for acceptable interpretation and rulemaking.

Whatever the topic, there is a great deal of policy uncertainty at present for agriculture. Although policy, particularly the farm bill, might generally be thought of as helping ag producers manage risk, it may be at this point that policy itself is a risk. Ag producers and stakeholders will need to be proactive in addressing the current policy uncertainty and planning for potential policy directions. They also may need to be engaged in the policy process itself, ensuring that policymakers understand the issues and the potential effects of the complex issues and policy choices ahead.