January 16, 2017
I usually like agriculture news that starts “North Dakota, South Dakota lead nation.” But I am not so sure about this one.
North Dakota and South Dakota led the nation in the percentage decline in cropland values in 2016, according to a recent report from AgriBank, a cooperative owned by Farm Credit Services in 15 Midwest states.
The report dug into the USDA 2016 land value survey. The survey showed how land values and rents changed from 2015 to 2016.
North Dakota had the largest percentage decline (minus 6.5%) in land values, followed by South Dakota (minus 5.6%) and Nebraska (minus 4.3%).
Some of reduction in North Dakota can be attributed to the decline in crude oil and energy markets, the AgriBank report concluded.
Of course, declines in wheat and other grain prices also contributed to the drop in cropland values, according to the AgriBank report.
On the one hand, this is bad news for your balance sheet if you own land.
On the other hand, it is good news if you are renting. It may give you some points to make when you are negotiating.
Land values were not down everywhere. Wisconsin (plus $200) had the largest increase (with its strong dairy industry being a contributing factor) and — along with Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee — most likely saw an increase in cropland values due to the strong recreational and urban expansion components in the land market, the AgriBank report said.
Also, the diversity of crop production in these states continues to support values, while states that have cropland concentrated in corn and soybean production (such as Iowa and Illinois) have seen values decline with the lower price levels for both crops.
More details
Other points from the AgriBank report:
• Iowa had the highest average cropland value ($8,000 per acre), followed by Illinois ($7,450) and Indiana ($7,000). The lowest values were in the Northern Plains states of Wyoming ($1,370), North Dakota ($2,000) and South Dakota ($3,520) — and Arkansas ($2,710).
• Arkansas had the largest percentage increase in pasture land values (plus 7%), followed by Nebraska (plus 4.6%) and South Dakota (plus 4.1%). As with cropland, states with a strong recreational and urban expansion component tended to do better than others. Also, states with a strong dairy (Wisconsin and South Dakota) and beef industry (Nebraska) tended to do better.
• Illinois (minus 4.2%) had the largest percentage decrease, followed by Michigan (minus 3.0%) and Minnesota (minus 2.9%).
• In absolute dollar terms, Arkansas (plus $160) also had the largest increase while Illinois (minus $150) had the largest decline among the District states.
• In terms of average value per acre, Tennessee was the highest ($3,540), followed by Iowa ($3,400), Illinois ($3,400) and Ohio ($3,100). The lowest per-acre values were found in the Northern Plains states of Wyoming ($510 per acre), North Dakota ($830), Nebraska ($910) and South Dakota ($1,020).
Cash rent
Minnesota (minus 6.1%) had the largest decline in cropland cash rents, followed by Iowa (minus 6.0%) and Nebraska (minus 4.9%).
In absolute dollars, Iowa had the largest decline (minus $15 per acre), followed by Minnesota (minus $11) and Nebraska (minus $10).
Michigan (plus $9 or plus 7.6%) and Wisconsin (plus $3 or plus 2.2%) were the only states to show increases in cropland cash rents from last year.
For the average cropland rental rates per acre, Iowa had the highest rate ($235), followed by Illinois ($221), Nebraska ($196) and Indiana ($192). The lowest rental rates were in Wyoming ($62) and North Dakota ($68).
Pasture rents
Only four states had declines in pasture rental rates. Nebraska had the largest decline (minus $4.50 per acre), followed by South Dakota (minus $3), Missouri (minus $2) and North Dakota (minus $1).
In terms of per-acre cash rent rates, Iowa had the largest average ($52), followed by Illinois ($36) and Wisconsin ($35). North Dakota had the lowest rate ($17), followed by Arkansas and Tennessee ($20).
The full AgriBank report can be found here.
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