Many of you remember Jim Newman. Now retired, the Purdue University Extension agronomist studied weather patterns both in Indiana and around the globe. He wrote a weather column for Indiana Prairie Farmer for many years. One thing Newman stressed in his career and in his columns was that once a weather pattern sets up, stay with it until there is clear indication that a change is coming.

WARM START TO FALL: The warmer-than-normal trend that dominated most of the summer in Indiana is expected to carry over into early fall.

Translated, he was saying that once weather patterns form, there are forces that tend to keep the same patterns intact until a strong weather feature comes along that changes the picture. Or you could say it’s one way a weatherman can be wrong only once in a stretch of several weeks. He would only be wrong on the day the pattern finally breaks!

Warm trend

A pattern of warm temperatures seems to have set up over Indiana over the past several weeks. Most of the summer has featured warmer-than-normal temps. Ken Scheeringa, associate state climatologist, says according to maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the warm pattern should continue at least through September.

In fact, the entire country is locked into a warmer-than-normal pattern. Remember that "warmer than normal" means temperatures averaged over the month should be above average, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it will be hot every day. Sometimes temperatures only average a small amount above normal; sometimes more. Long-range forecasters can tell which direction the trend is going in certain situations. However, no one can yet guess how strong the trend will be in advance.

Rain prediction cloudy

There is no good indication of a trend for precipitation in September in Indiana, Scheeringa says. The rainfall trend has been more difficult to get a handle on all season, and it appears it will continue to be hard to pin down into early fall.

NOAA’s official forecast issued for September indicates normal precipitation patterns. What that really means is that there is an equal chance that any one area in Indiana could see normal, above-normal or below-normal precipitation, Scheeringa concludes.

According to maps from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Indiana is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during the month of September. For precipitation, there is an equal chance that Indiana will be above normal, normal or below normal.