Corn prices continue to trade near the upper end of the recent range. Bulls are talking about the USDA resurveying both North Dakota and Minnesota with the data being used in the November report.
Bulls are also pointing towards other late-planting and late-harvest years where the USDA has made some downgrades to their production estimates with more data being available and collected. I could argue the six-week low in the dollar is helping to add some strength.
I could also talk about dry conditions in Argentina and a slow start to soybean planting in Brazil which could arguably mean less production in South America, but that debate may rage for many more weeks.
I should also note, the EU corn crop estimate was lowered slightly by Stragie Grain, but at the same time, they bumped new-crop acreage higher, so not much market reaction. While bulls continue to point towards supply-side uncertainties, bears continue to point towards worries with demand.
This morning the trade will be digesting the latest in weekly export sales, which are expected to be less than desired. Remember, weekly export sales are already down double-digits. While ethanol margins seem somewhat improved there is still a ton of questions surrounding overall corn used for ethanol.
Weekly production is still lower than what is needed to reach the USDA forecast and total supply continues to build a bit, so the bears keep using this card in their hand. Technically, the trade continues to pay close attention to the major moving averages in the DEC19 contract between $4.00 and $4.10 per bushel.
If we can get a close back above $4.10 perhaps we can drift upwards into that $4.20 to $4.40 range, which is an area I will be watching closely and perhaps making another new-crop cash sale. As a spec, I continue to hold my bullish positions.
The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.
The source is solely responsible for the information provided and is wholly owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.