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Time changes the markets

Indecision will eventually become a decision with time, you just might not like the outcome!

Soybean traders continue to debate U.S. and South American production, along with Chinese demand uncertainties. Here at home, the USDA reported 75% of the U.S. soybean crop is now considered "harvested". Bulls point to the fact there's still plenty of soybeans out in the field and battling the elements. Between Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri there is thought to be about +300 million bushels still left to harvest. There's arguably close to the same amount left harvest in the northern states between the Dakota's, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 

I've included more of the harvest specifics in the graphic down below. South American weather has become more cooperative. In fact, several sources inside Brazil are now thinking their planting pace has moved from well behind to slightly ahead of schedule. 

Kevin Van Trump11.05 soybeans harvest.png

Technically, the JAN20 contract seems comfortable trading in this $9.25 to $9.59 range, the same range we have been in for the past 30-days. Just keep in mind, this contract has traded to the $9.59 level on only three occasions since last March and has never able to push beyond $9.60. You can see the resistance on the chart included below. Be paying very close attention we are only about 20 cents away from this important level. I should note, the NOV20 contract is actually trading at its highest levels since last March and starting to pressure the $9.80 level. 

Kevin Van Trump11.05 soybeans 3.png

As a producer, this could be an important inflection point where you may need to make some tough decisions. Only you can answer if these numbers work or don't work and if what degree of "risk" you are comfortable moving forward with.

 

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The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

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