Long-range ag climatologists say El Nino is still in control. According to recent maps from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Indiana temperature is expected to be above normal for the month of February. This trend should apply across the entire state, notes Ken Scheeringa, Indiana associate state climatologist.

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Precipitation across nearly all of Indiana is predicted to be much drier than normal. These outlooks are consistent with the CPC statement about El Nino issued in early January.

Warm or cool? Right now sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal, resulting in a strong El Nino which is impacting Indiana's current mild weather pattern. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

The statement noted that El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16. Expect a transition to the neutral phase of the El Nino/La Nina cycle during late spring or early summer 2016.

Some had earlier suggested that a La Nina event might be in place by summer. If the recent forecast is correct, and a neutral phase develops first, don't expect to see the effects of a La Nina which might develop anytime soon. Weather experts say there is typically a lag time, from a few weeks to a few months, before the effects of a shift are felt across North America.

Five terms helpful to understand this story:

1. El Nino. This is the warm phase of the El Nino/ La Nina cycle. It refers to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. When an El Nino occurs during winter, in Indiana it's often a mild winter with temperatures trending above normal and precipitation trending below normal.

2. La Nina. This is the cold phase of the cycle. Sea surface temperatures are below normal in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

3. ENSO neutral. Tropical sea surface temperatures are neither above nor below normal. This phase typically develops between an El Nino and La Nina, although there is no set pattern to when one of the cycles can occur. Sometimes it goes from a La Nina to neutral back to La Nina, for example.

4. Barometric pressure. As related to El Nino – this is the atmospheric pressure which is affected by changes in sea surface temperature.

5. Atmospheric circulation patterns. Barometric pressure affects circulation patterns aloft. These circulate around the globe, and determine storm tracks in various parts of the world, including North America.