With all the tensions around inflation and world events roiling grain markets, it’s going to be a wild ride this growing season.

And we haven’t even seen what Mother Nature has up her sleeve yet this year.

Still, for better or worse, crops must be planted, orchards thinned and animals fed no matter what happens off the farm. While there are plenty of issues farmers cannot control, farmers will need to focus on what they can control — planting of seeds, fertilizer usage, pest control and care of animals, to name a few.

American Agriculturist got a bag of mixed responses when we asked growers within our circulation area to discuss their strategies for 2022.

Large grain production

Chip Bowling. Chip Bowling, who grows nearly 2,000 acres of corn, soybeans and wheat on his farm in Newburg, Md., is ecstatic about grain prices, but he knows high input prices will be quickly eating into any profits.

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Bowling says. “I know that while the grain markets have been a pleasant surprise lately, we all kind of knew it was coming because of the uncertainty in the world.”

Getting seed was never an issue for him; it’s been securing enough fertilizer. Prices are through the roof, and worries over supply because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis — Russia was the largest exporter of nitrogen products in 2021, according to Bloomberg — are forcing him to make critical changes this growing season.

“I'm definitely going to be splitting fertilizer applications,” Bowling says. “I've seen myself doing tissue samples once the crops get up. We just got soil test results back. Yeah, I'm going to go by my nutrient management plan more than I have in the past.”

He’s also doing more liming to get his pH to an ideal level.

“Lime is still the cheapest fertilizer to get. If you keep your pH right, every fertilizer works better,” Bowling says, adding that he’s planning on using more liquid fertilizer because he feels it’s more stable in price.

Small grain production

Ron and Barb Snyder. Ron and Barb Snyder farm a little over 200 acres of corn, soybeans and wheat in Pemberville, Ohio.

Ron doesn’t see the increase in input prices affecting his management strategies. “I have tried hard to make my farm resilient,” he says.

The Snyders are focusing on regenerative agriculture to maintain their soils and grow healthy plants with minimal inputs. To understand the soil and plant needs better, Ron relies on three tests: the Haney soil test, a sap analysis and a metagenomic test.

The Haney soil test determines what quantity of soil nutrients are available to soil microbes. The sap analysis determines what is in the plant, allowing for adjustments in crop nutrient applications, while the metagenomic test is a microbial DNA test.

“If you use and understand these tests, you can use the results to manipulate soil for the crop’s benefit,” Ron says.

With the use of cover crops, micronutrients, sulfur, biologicals and other management practices, he has reduced his input costs. “I have not used phosphorus since 2011 and have maintained and improved crop yields,” Ron says.

He’s been working to reduce nitrogen, which he prepaid for this year. Last year, with 200-bushel-per-acre corn, he used 140 pounds of nitrogen total — about 0.6 pounds per bushel.

“Twenty years ago, I could do anything I wanted to my farm — rip it, chisel plow it, subsoil it, you name it,” Ron says. “I’d get that first inch of rain and everything was fine, but get another quarter-inch and water sat on top — it couldn’t move through the soil. I started farming with cover crops. and one thing led to another. It’s a progression. I’m not to the end of the journey yet, but I’ve cut out and cut back on fertilizers and herbicides. I’ve started to work with roller crimping to cut back further on herbicides.”

Large dairy perspective

Jon Patterson. Jon Patterson, who raises nearly 3,000 dairy cattle and manages 3,000 acres of crops at Patterson Farms in Auburn, N.Y., isn’t so optimistic.

“I’m relatively pessimistic with feed prices being where they’re at right now,” he says.

Dairy prices are good right now, but with high feed prices and the cost of crop inputs up dramatically, Patterson knows any significant profit won’t be there for long.

“I probably won't be buying as much fertilizer,” he says. “I’m praying for a good spring to utilize cow manure. Talked about trying some different things to better utilize nutrients in the soil.”

Longer term, labor is his concern with New York state poised to lower the mandatory overtime pay threshold on farms from 60 hours per week to 40 hours per week over a 10-year period. Many farmers have said the move would make farming in New York too costly and would put the state’s ag economy at a competitive disadvantage.

Patterson says he’s looking at adding robots if he decides to expand the operation further. Still, his farm’s future is uncertain.

“I’m the sixth generation on the farm,” he says. “The seventh generation is finishing up his first year. I’m really scared about the future of ag in New York state.”

Smaller dairy perspective

Ashley Messing-Kennedy. With her husband, Eric, Ashley Messing-Kennedy is operating Sheridan Dairy and Sheridan Meats & More in Bad Axe, Mich. They are farming 240 acres of corn and hay, and automated-milking about 250 cows in what equates to about three times a day.

Normally, they would put hay and corn starter down and then pull soil samples to see if they needed to put on more nitrogen.

“This year, we’re not putting any hay starter down, hauling manure on it to save money, and we're only putting starter down on corn — hoping we won't need any more nitrogen,” Messing-Kennedy says. “Because we haul manure late in the fall, we don’t know what our nitrogen levels will be, so we don’t usually prepay it. We did, however, prepay and purchase our starter,” she adds, noting that their salesperson warned if they waited, it might not be available.

With the current higher milk prices, Messing-Kennedy says it’s created a “flush” between the higher input costs. “We’re definitely watching our cost of production.”

She’s also about “flush” with optimism versus pessimism on the growing season. “I have both positive and negative thoughts,” she says. “It's going to be a really interesting time in the future with everything that's going on politically in Eastern Europe.”

To help diversify, they have started a retail beef market, selling direct to consumers, allowing for more control over final product pricing.

Dave and Lisa Warnke. Dave and Lisa Warnke of St. Johns, Mich., have a very focused dairy perspective. They’re living on what was Dave’s parents farm and have been farming for 30 years. About 14 years ago, they introduced dairy cows in a smaller, pasture-based system. They’re farming about 100 acres with some occasional help from their son, Ryan.

They’re milking cows twice a day and have no intention, at this time, to grow the dairy side. “It makes more sense for us to stay small,” Lisa says.

They’re working at keeping fertilizer costs down by rotational-pasturing 80 acres, pulling 20 different acres out each year, plowing down cover crops and manure, and then planting corn for feed, before returning it to a multispecies pasture mix.

They have not prepurchased fertilizer and hope not to have to buy fertilizer during the growing season.

“I would say I'm kind of an optimist, tentatively,” she says. “We’re most concerned about weather and having enough rain to grow crops so we don’t have to buy a bunch of feed. We don’t have irrigation, so even though we’re getting a decent price for our milk, that could change at any time.”

To help diversify, the Warnkes are breeding dairy-Angus cross cattle and selling 3-day-old calves. “It gives us the best price, and we can forgo input costs,” Lisa says.

Fruit insight

Jack King. Pinching pennies is the plan for fruit grower Jack King of King’s Orchard in Kewadin, Mich., just north of Traverse City. “But ultimately there’s only so much you can cut, so we’ll have to absorb and pass on some of those costs to our customers,” says King, who is vice president of crop protection on the 350-acre farm his father, John, and his uncle, Jim, started in 1980. “You have to do the work, and you have to protect the fruits, otherwise you could lose the whole crop.”

The farm started with cherries. Today, in addition to the 100 acres of tart cherries and 15 acres of high-density sweet cherries, they have smaller acreage of apricots, plums, raspberries and strawberries. They’re also offering an assortment of vegetables, mainly consisting of cucumbers, winter squash, summer squash, rhubarb and pumpkins. “We are heavily invested in the retail and U-pick experience,” King says, emphasizing that people have never been more interested in getting quality, locally grown products.

They have no major changes planned for inputs during the growing season. “We’re just going to have to roll with it,” says King, noting that higher labor costs are also taking a toll. “We’re printing about 80 paychecks in our peak season. We’ll have to increase our prices and hope it all works out.”

After two tart cherry crop failures in 2020-21 — mostly because of spring freezes and poor pollination — he’s looking ahead with optimism. “Those losses hurt big time, but what it means is those trees have stocked up resources for two years. Those trees are ready to have a limb-buster year,” he says.

Forage and vegetable outlook

David Fink. David Fink, who manages 2,000 acres with his son, Mike, in Germansville, Pa., says his cost of producing hay — he produces mostly 3-by-4 or 3-by-3 bales that go for the horse market — has gone up 20% to 30%. Transportation and fuel are squeezing him right now as not only does he process his own hay, but he also brings in hay to process.

“I’m looking to charge a lot more for hay, and I’m not sure if the market will stand it,” Fink says.

He’s considering planting more corn and soybeans this year, as well as more vegetables depending on contracts that are available.

Fink says he’s found a new source of poultry manure to replace some of his fertilizer use. Two years ago, he installed two Chinook hay dryers that dry bales in 15 minutes. The typical drying time for hay bales is around four-and-a-half days. He likes his hay to get down to around 15% moisture for safe storage in one of his nine hay storage barns.

“You need to invest in having the higher-quality hay because anything other than the higher quality is not sustainable, unless you’re feeding it on the farm,” he says.

Many costs have gone up. For example, Fink says that he’s seen a big increase in pallet costs, which he uses to stack fall pumpkins for sale. The cost of plastic for packing his vegetables has gone up 30%.

Even to get a bearing for one of his hay tools, Fink says he waited 16 weeks — something that usually should not take more than a week.

On his vegetables, Fink says that he has installed a new packing line that is more efficient and costs less to operate.