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2025 farm outlook: Planted in hope2025 farm outlook: Planted in hope

Farm Futures Survey: Farmers intend to plant more corn and soybeans, despite grain price and export concerns, and even though they expect lower profits.

Pam Caraway, Executive Editor

January 17, 2025

4 Min Read
soybean field at sunset
Jen Koukol

Farmers have faith in the field, but little confidence in the grain market.

Two thirds of farmers who responded to a survey by Farm Futures said they plan to plant more soybeans and corn – and they expect to make a profit from those crops in 2025. Most, however, believe that profit will be lower than in 2024.

Farmers also indicated they will increase planted grain acres this year, despite expectations for low prices and reduced profit. Farmers in major corn-producing states seem swayed by a December corn rally that continued into this month.

“In light of the corn market’s rally to six-month highs in late 2024 and early 2025, it makes sense that many farmers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and other top producing states plan to ramp up corn plantings this year,” Senior Editor Bruce Blythe says.

The reduced profit expectations? Well, those also make sense.

“To me, the survey results show that farmers are settling into the reality of the current market downturn,” says Ben Potter, senior editor at Farm Futures. “For example, 74% of respondents indicated that they expect lower profits in 2025 compared to 2024. Still, there are some hints of optimism, with a majority of respondents (73%) expecting to see lower interest rates this year, and few (28%) anticipating higher land rents.”

The reasons cited for reduced profit this year: lower commodity prices and higher costs for inputs, land leases and interest.

That farmers are holding out for better prices is evident in their marketing activity – or lack thereof. Many are still holding 2024 bushels. A few even have unsold bushels from 2023.

  • About 48% of their 2024 corn and soybean crops aren’t sold.

  • Of their 2023 crops, responding farmers reported storing about 8% of their corn, 5% of their soybean production and 3% of their wheat.

Given the opportunity, farmers pluck profit from the market anytime prices prove profitable.

  • Nearly 40% reported that they hedged crops in the past two or more years before they were harvested. But that break-even line so far has eluded many farmers seeking profitable price opportunities for 2025.

  • Only 7% believe they forward priced enough 2025 production to make a profit.

Tariffs expected to tank profits

Underlying those reasons: a new presidential administration.

Though 75% of respondents reported voting for Donald Trump for president, only 21% of all respondents believe farmers will benefit from tariffs proposed by the incoming administration. Write-ins regarding the primary reason for lower profits included “Trump,” “Trump’s trade tariffs” and “TRUMP.”

Of those who expect to see a benefit from increased and expanded tariffs, 79 took the time to write in why. Another 170 farmers wrote in why they expect a renewed tariff war will hurt their businesses. Both groups largely looked at the long-term impact.

On the benefit side of the discussion, comments included:

  • “Long term trade resolutions will benefit U.S. farmers eventually if trade agreements are truly free trade/free market agreements.”

  • “I believe the tariffs will lead to input cost being lower. I think to start with it may not look like it’s benefiting, and inputs might increase, but in the long-term, farmers will see substantial benefits and be more profitable. People expect positive results with a right-now attitude and are not looking at the positive results the long-term impact will provide.”

  • And repeatedly: “Level the playing field.”

On the detriment side of the conversation, comments included:

  • “Ag is first in and last out of a trade war.”

  • “Countries will retaliate by sourcing grain from other countries and may permanently damage our relations for export.”   

  • And repeatedly: “Higher imports,” “Lost exports” and “Lower prices.”

More corn and lots more soybean acres

Still, the 700-plus farmers who responded to the survey plan to slightly increase corn acres and significantly increase soybean plantings.

Two key factors could upend those December plans:

  • Soybean futures prices. “A key question for the grain markets in coming months is whether soybean acres increase or decrease, given the outlook for heavy global supplies and weak prices,” Blythe says.

  • U.S. trade and farm policy. “Farmers will have some time to react to the incoming Trump Administration, weather patterns, price trends, and much more before planters start to roll this spring,” Potter says.

“Our survey results do hold some hints that they are already considering some changes for 2025,” Potter says.

One respondent was blunt on that point: In explaining any rotation decisions, the farmer wrote, “make possible in-season changes closer to planting time.”

In addition, farmers voiced concern on prices and Farm Bill needs. Of the nearly 300 write-in comments, the predominant calls were for price protection, crop insurance, and a better safety net.

With a focus on grain production, Farm Futures serves large-scale farm operators across the country with business-oriented content. One of the services that Farm Futures provides to its market-oriented farmer audience is regular surveys to help them adjust production direction to maximize profit. Included in those surveys are topical management and economic questions.

Farm Futures will survey farmers again in March.

About the Author

Pam Caraway

Executive Editor, Farm Futures

Pam Caraway leads Farm Futures, the national business publication for Farm Progress dedicated to providing information that helps leading agricultural producers and their financial partners drive economic sustainability for family farms. Pam's experience spans 40 years of writing about farming for farmers, including newspapers, trade magazines and marketing for top-tier agricultural manufacturers. She holds a bachelor's degree in communications from the University of West Florida and a master's degree in digital marketing from Northern Illinois University.

Writing about farming is a dream job for this Air Force brat who considers the family dairy farm in upstate New York her childhood home. Her family returned to that area each time their RED HORSE member deployed to war - Vietnam, Korea, the Philippines. Her dad's military service also took the family to Washington State, Texas, Florida and Alaska. Pam's perspective is shaped by friends and family who work to maintain generational farming legacies. Her passion is to provide information that helps each one achieve their family farming goals.

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