What are the smartest farmers you know doing differently in 2025?

That’s the question Prairie Farmer asked thought leaders across Illinois agriculture as the new year approaches. Crop prices are down, input prices are up, and farmers will find success in making the right small decisions — strategies around financial ratios, weather patterns, weed management and more.

Here’s a list of the top 15 steps you can take to be better in 2025:

1. Watch soil moisture. In September and October, soil moisture levels across the entire upper Mississippi River basin dropped to their lowest recorded levels, reports Eric Snodgrass, Conduit senior meteorologist. A dry fall that doesn’t get corrected before spring puts a lot of pressure on just-in-time spring and summer rains.

“That’s the first strike against us going into the 2025 growing season,” Snodgrass says.

Normally, a strong La Niña would dump wintertime precipitation, but La Niña has been weak in December. It should peak in January. What if it fades instead? Snodgrass says in 6 out of 10 years when La Niña dies instead of building, the Midwest gets a drought.

“So, La Niña will be long gone by summer, but its lingering effects tend to be drier,” he adds.

2. Never skimp on weed control. Bar none, your biggest yield reducer is weeds, says Matt Montgomery, agronomy education lead for Beck’s. “It’s tempting to cut weed control. Don’t do that. Be really convinced that you’ll do a pre-residual, do a post-residual, do the correct rates for sizes of weed species,” he says. “You don’t want a weed escape hampering yield potential.”

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And don’t trash tools in your limited toolbox. Herbicide resistance is already costing farmers money. Montgomery says he was in high school the last time new herbicide modes of action came to market, and those lost effectiveness due to resistance. Don’t make a one-year decision.

“If cost pressure drives us into stuff that isn’t best management practices, we’ve ruined the whole industry,” he says.

3. Monitor interest rates. Don’t look for huge jumps in interest rates, but another quarter point or two could happen, says Brad Zwilling, Illinois Farm Business Farm Management data analysist. The economy has slowed, last year’s interest rate hikes were supposed to slow inflation, and now the administration is changing, with talk of tariffs. Food prices haven’t come down and inflation is alive and well, which means the government may increase interest rates another point or two in 2025.

Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a full point, shaving off another quarter point on Dec. 18.

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The cost of money is a big deal, both for interest on loans and opportunity costs. For example, storing grain becomes more expensive when interest rates are higher.

4. Follow total acreages. Prognostications from USDA's November long-range baseline tables predict more corn acres and fewer soybean acres, says Bryce Knorr, Farm Progress market analyst. “Generally, the market believes farmers like to plant corn as long as they can because it generates the most revenue, which is why the ratio of 2025-crop soybean to corn futures was below long-term average,” he explains.

Prices likely are heading lower for 2025, but how much depends on factors not yet known — like South American weather. Look at Brazil’s second-crop corn. Pay attention to La Niña and El Niño cycles and dry pockets likely caused by cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and know there’s increased risk for lower-than-average yield in the U.S. during the La Niña cooling phase.

Look at your risk. If you can lock in a profit on corn that’s better than soybeans, then take it. Same for profit on soybeans. If your balance sheet is not in good shape, be more proactive and make sure you can withstand a prolonged downturn in prices.

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5. Keep tabs on Brazil. Looking to grain markets and crop supply, Snodgrass says Brazil is firing on all cylinders with no weather problems. “And until there’s a problem there, that means we’re waiting on weather risk in the Midwest for next year. Risk could come from something else — geopolitics or war — but without anything to shock the market, prices won’t improve,” he says.

“So, unless you’re gonna have a weather event be the thing that hits the supply side, then I don’t know what to tell you,” he adds.

6. Use common sense on inputs. If you’re looking at the balance sheet and trying to curb costs, look for midpriced options instead of going really cheap or really expensive. For example, Montgomery says some folks are tempted to race to the bottom on seed treatments and do nothing or nearly nothing. “Problem is, it inflates your risk. We want yield. We want better margins. But we have to manage risk,” he explains.

On big historic pests, layer up. If you’ve had tar spot, look for a good hybrid score on tar spot and add fungicide. And make your big investments in “knowns.”

“We can’t replace nitrogen on corn. It requires a ton of N. Corn and beans will benefit from 15 to 20 pounds of sulfur. Both crops will respond to fungicide,” Montgomery says, adding that farmers who stuck with fungicide when tar spot came in last season had huge gains.

Try unknown products on limited acres first. “If a product makes promises to eliminate the knowns, be very careful, because it’s probably too good to be true,” Montgomery says. If you decide to dial back fertilizer, at least put back what you take off, he adds.

7. Plan harvest now. Choose hybrids with harvest logistics in mind, Montgomery says. Distribute maturities and plant across your farms so you can spread out the harvest workload. On beans, plan for a few early-maturing varieties. Spend winter months doing some deep thinking about where to position hybrids and varieties for long-term gain and better margin — and a better harvest.

8. Be careful with beans on beans. Considering planting soybeans on soybeans? Don’t dive in, just wade in, Montgomery advises. Try it on limited acres with a strong disease package. He saw pest issues in 2024 that could be exacerbated by a second crop year of soybeans in 2025.

“You’re putting all your eggs in one basket, which could have pest issues and market issues if the scenario changes,” he says. Tight margins might tempt you to plant beans on beans, but don’t do it on too many acres — and get a good disease package. “Whatever you want to do, pull back a few steps,” he recommends.

9. Be aware of fertilizer instability. Much of the world’s fertilizer comes from places where bombs are flying or ships are being sunk, Knorr says. A lot of ammonia flows out of Russia through Ukraine and the Black Sea, and a lot of ammonia fertilizers come from North Africa and the Middle East. Sanctions on Russian phosphates increased their price. Phosphate mines in central Florida are environmentally sensitive.

Stay on top of the fertilizer supply chain, which is both hyperlocal and super-international, Knorr says. If rail freights go up, it’ll cost you more. If rail lines freeze, you may not get it. Talk to your dealers and lock in deals when you can. That means knowing your cost of production and pulling the trigger when you can lock in profit on your inputs.

What’s a good deal? Know what you’ve paid in the past and know the trends. If you’re a farmer in northern Illinois looking at urea coming up the river, find out the price in New Orleans, the cost of moving it, and then figure out if that’s a good price. Your dealer can explain this to you and tell you if the purchase is advisable.

Knorr expects fertilizer prices to be lower overall in 2025 — but that depends on the supply chain where you farm.

10. Understand that populations matter. Know the ear type, agronomics and maybe even root morphology of your corn hybrids, because they impact ideal planting population. Your seed adviser should have studies on ideal populations. It might be a pain to stop the planter and tweak the rate, but Montgomery says there’s huge potential yield gain.

Don’t race to the bottom on soybean populations. University and company research shows decent yields from low seeding rates, in the 100,000 range. But if yields deflate, the risk magnifies exponentially in populations below 120,000 to 130,000. “If it goes south, it goes south quickly,” Montgomery says.

11. Curb family living. Don’t learn your family living costs from your accountant; it scares them. Those numbers are dramatically different following COVID-19 and inflation. Across Illinois FBFM, the average family living costs in 2023 were $125 an acre. That’s offset some by off-farm income, but even with taxes added, the farm has to cover about $100 an acre. “That’s a little less than your seed cost,” Zwilling points out.

Dividing FBFM records into thirds by family living costs, in 2023, the high third spent $164 per acre on family living, and the low third spent $120 per acre on family living and taxes. The high third had more farm and nonfarm income. But minus family living and taxes, they were minus $49,734. The low third was left with $28,018 after family living and taxes were deducted.

“So, in periods of lower income like 2014 to 2017, 2019 and 2023, the lower-third family living groups have more funds remaining — and in periods of higher income, the high-third family living group has more funds remaining,” Zwilling explains.

12. Know who owns what. Debt-to-asset ratio is your debts divided by your assets, which shows what you owe your lender. Or in other words, it shows how much of your business your lender owns and how much you own. Lenders don’t like to be in a situation where they own more than you do.

The average debt-to-asset ratio of Illinois farmers in 2023 was 18.81%, and the top quarter came in at 6.6%. Age is a bigger factor than income: In 2023, farmers under 30 had a 46% ratio, farmers age 40 to 50 had a 33% ratio, and farmers age 60 to 69 had a 13% ratio.

Working capital is figured by subtracting current liabilities from current assets. Divide that by acreage to get working capital per acre. Divide working capital by total expenses, and you get the percentage of your total expenses in working capital — which is your gas gauge. If it’s 100%, you have enough in working capital to finance next year’s crop expenses.

“We’ve had the highest incomes ever in ’21 and ’22. But that can go away,” Zwilling says. Know your own trends.

13. Prepare for global uncertainty. By the time a major event hits the news, the market has already made up its mind. Knorr says you have to figure out how it impacts your operation.

He believes China has had plenty of time to prepare for Donald Trump’s second presidency, and they know him well. Tariffs will be a negotiating tactic, and both countries already have made moves in advance to prepare.

Keep your eyes open and be ready to flex your marketing plan as needed, because much is unknown.

“If you want certainty, go to church. That’s the only place you’ll find it,” Knorr says. “The world doesn’t have it.”

14. Be low, not lowest. Don’t be the lowest, but be low. Know your costs and know your competitive advantage, Zwilling says.

“You can’t market your way out of a low-price scenario. But if you’re low cost, you can,” he explains. You can achieve this by doing simple things like soil testing and not applying excess fertilizer, but also by reducing capital purchases. Can you make it another year before trading tractors? What are you under-using? Can you trade two into one?

Do cash flows and forward projections, and update them frequently. Reference them constantly. Zwilling points to Farmdoc’s monthly/quarterly cash flow tool where you can lay out what you expect to plant, yield, prices, and income and expenses. That’s how you generate income, he adds.

15. Track the Bermuda High. The Bermuda High is another early-season moisture indicator, delivering a pump of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest for spring and summer rainfall. Snodgrass sees indications that it will be weaker and displaced in 2025. The last time that happened was in 2023, when the Bermuda High was in Ireland and Illinois had a very dry spring.

“If that thing’s gone in 2025, we do not have regular access to Gulf of Mexico moisture,” he explains. “I’m worried about 2025, and I normally never worry about that.”

In 2023, Midwestern farmers saw a bone-dry spring, perfect rains in July and August, and a great crop. In 2024, they got a wet spring, great rains through July and August, and then drought took the tail end off the crop.

“Both years had a good July. What if we have a good spring and a terrible July? That’s what steals yield from us,” Snodgrass says. He points farmers to his website, ag-wx.com, for weather tracking and modeling.